Monetary Policy Committee

Today's opinions examine the RBI's inflation dilemma, rising life insurance surrenders, India's employment crisis, possible UPI charges and the shift from food to nutrition security

The RBI's decision to hold rates reflects easing inflation risks for now, but rising price pressures could warrant policy tightening in the coming months

RBI MPC August: The policy committee kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25 per cent, and the committee maintained its 'neutral' stance

Nippon India MF expects the RBI to keep rates unchanged for now, while forecasting a limited 50-75 bps rate hike cycle over the next 12-15 months

The three-day meeting of the Reserve Bank of India's rate-setting panel started on Monday amid expectations of a status quo on the benchmark repo rate, with the Monetary Policy Committee slated to announce its decision on August 5. As global uncertainties and inflation risks persist, most experts expect the six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to adopt a cautious approach despite resilient domestic economic growth. In June, the Reserve Bank had kept its key policy rate unchanged at 5.25 per cent and adopted a cautious wait-and-watch stance as policymakers assessed the fallout of the West Asia conflict. The central bank had raised the retail inflation estimate for 2026-27 to 5.1 per cent from its earlier estimate of 4.6 per cent, largely due to mounting input costs, triggered by the pass-through of higher global energy prices to retail rates of petrol and diesel. It lowered its GDP forecast for FY27 to 6.6 per cent from the 6.9 per cent estimated in April. RBI Governor Sanjay

The growth-inflation outlook remains clouded despite easing West Asia tensions, with risks from food prices and supply chains, says Bhattacharya

The decision to hold rates was unanimous. The MPC also retained the neutral stance on policy

With oil prices elevated and monsoon risks looming, the RBI is expected to hold rates steady while reassessing inflation and growth forecasts

The domestic rate-setting panel cut the policy repo rate by a cumulative 125 basis points in 2025 and it was on hold in the February and April policies

Ram Singh says while such a pause cannot fix the supply disruption, it is an effective tool to mitigate a growth sacrifice that would worsen the output gap

RBI holds rates amid West Asia risks, as MPC flags inflation, supply shocks, and external pressures while maintaining a cautious growth outlook

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the West Asia conflict has raised risks to growth and inflation via oil, trade, and supply chains, but government steps on supply chains and exports may limit the imp

This time, communication will be key, not action

Conflict in the Middle East poses some immediate-term challenges for the Indian economy but is unlikely to dent long-term economic growth momentum, an external member of the RBI's rate-setting panel has said. Going forward, there is a need for fiscal and monetary policies to work in a coordinated manner to push GDP growth to a higher trajectory, Nagesh Kumar has said. In the present scenario, a hike in oil prices, exports disruptions and impact on remittances have been identified as the immediate challenges on the growth front, he said. "The breakout of the Middle East conflict poses some immediate-term challenges for the Indian economy by raising oil prices, disrupting exports destined to the region and the potential loss of remittances, besides threatening security of the Indian diaspora in the region," Kumar told PTI in an e-mailed interview. In the immediate short run, he noted, the conflict is escalating with US-Israel strikes and oil prices are likely to harden. "Hopefully,

RBI MPC member Saugata Bhattacharya flags rising inflation risks but sees no overheating, says lower final US tariffs could lift exports and foreign capital inflows into India

The RBI's MPC held rates steady, citing improved growth and benign inflation, while announcing regulatory steps to boost credit flow and strengthen digital payment safety

The RBI's MPC unanimously kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25 per cent, retaining a neutral stance while signalling that future policy decisions will be guided by data from new GDP and CPI series

Decision on UPI MDR in govt's domain: RBI governor

The decision for the status quo on the policy rate was unanimous. As for the stance, one of the six MPC members, Ram Singh, held a different view, favouring a change to "accommodative"

Malhotra also said that there is no reduction in the central bank's holdings of US treasuries