While there are three brands and six generic players for the drug, interchangeability among brands of the drug means an increase in competitive pressure. However, analysts believe the market is still large enough for generic players to improve their revenues and market share.
Analysts at Nomura Research believe product pricing is attractive, as high product complexity, greater demand because of Covid-19, and the expectation of limited generic competition have led to lower than typical generic price erosion. Most brokerages expect the opportunity to generate annual revenues upwards of $75 million, with near-term gains coming from supply issues for the generic competitor, Perrigo.
In addition to this launch, other products could drive Lupin’s revenues in the American market. These are the ramp-up in levothyroxine, used in treating thyroid hormone deficiency, anti-inflammatory drug Apriso, and the relaunch of anti-diabetic medication, metformin. The company also has a portfolio of 158 abbreviated new drug applications, which are pending with the US drug regulator for approval.
The portfolio is expected to help Lupin report annual revenue growth of 7 per cent in two years, as compared to the 5 per cent decline it witnessed in the US market during the FY18-20 period, according to analysts at Motilal Oswal Research. In India, the company is expected to outperform peers,
given its chronic-heavy drug portfolio. A key trigger for the stock is also the clearance of its manufacturing sites, which are not compliant with US FDA regulations.
Though the inhaler launch announcement is significant, the stock did not react much as the news has already been factored in. Higher gains than expected in new launches and traction in the key markets of India and the US could see the stock extend its 16 per cent gains over the last month.
 "Lupin")