The southwest monsoon is on its course and is expected to hit the Kerala coast by Saturday, though the onset might not be as strong as was being forecast earlier. India Meteorological Department (IMD) said heavy rain might occur in some places of Kerala around Sunday. The monsoon is currently around the Andaman and Nicobar islands.
The Met office had predicted that the rains would arrive in Kerala on Sunday, with an error margin of four days.
G P Sharma, vice-president of meteorology at private weather forecasting agency Skymet, said that monsoon will not begin with heavy showers, though the onset will be around May 30. However, a weak start won’t have any bearing on precipitation during the rest of the season. “Looking at the current situation we can say that the entire peninsular India will have poorer rain in the initial days. In fact, the progress of monsoon over peninsular India is expected to be delayed by a week,” Skymet said.
IMD in its April forecast had said southwest monsoon this year would be below-normal at 93 per cent of the long period average (LPA), with a model error of four per cent, while Skymet said it would be normal at 102 per cent of the LPA with a model error four per cent.
The Met department is expected to update its forecast in middle of June.