There is no doubt about it. The Congress is shaken; not just by Trinamool Congress (TMC) chief Mamata Banerjee’s vitriol, but by the larger implications for what this means.
“If a recent survey is correct, and we see an erosion of the Congress, then everyone will have to decide what kind of India we want to live in. Everyone is at odds with everyone else and the polity is hopelessly fractured. Does this help reform? Does this help India?” asked a serving Congress chief minister. As always, in a crisis, every Congress leader has closed ranks. The effort is to engage, talk, persuade.
While the government, most members of Parliament and ministers are confident, is safe for the moment, a denouement is possible any time on the floor of the House.
The party’s travails are many. It faces certain defeat in the coming assembly elections, beginning with Gujarat in November. The gains of the presidential elections, when it gained rather than lost allies, unlike the NDA, have been forgotten. Most important, “by bowing to allies with dubious credentials and making weird compromises, the party thinks it will strengthen itself on the floor of the House when in fact, it will further weaken its standing”, said a chief minister.
Interestingly, the Congress is watching its allies making no effort to defend or save it. Two days into the crisis, only today, did agriculture minister Sharad Pawar come out and defend the foreign direct investment in retail decision. Although it is his ministry – agriculture – that will benefit the most from the back-end investment, given the way the policy has been structured.
The Congress is also a little bitter that allies like the Nationalist Congress Party have been unable to force through agricultural marketing reform, although they had ample chance to do so. On the other hand, Pawar’s silent support to Mamata Banerjee on the issue of presidential election – when she opposed Pranab Mukherjee for the job and caused a near crisis in the UPA – has been discussed in responsible party circles.
The Congress’ biggest problem is Uttar Pradesh. If it compromises with Mulayam Singh Yadav and makes peace with the Samajwadi Party, it is likely to be reduced to playing second fiddle to Yadav, like the Tamil Nadu or West Bengal model. If it doesn’t, it risks losing the government at the Centre.
The important factor in the management of this sorry episode has also been that Rahul Gandhi has been invisible. This also raises questions about his further political internship.
