GDP estimates on expected lines, has fiscal implications for country

India's inability to go about doing business during the lockdown to contain the coronavirus had a profound impact on the economy

The first advance estimates of GDP growth for FY21 at -7.7 per cent is in line with our (CARE Ratings) projection of -7.7-7.9 per cent. This is also like what RBI has projected at -7.5 per cent for FY21. The approach to such forecasts is important as the Central Statistics Office extrapolates growth rates based on the most recent numbers that are available for various sectors. This also means that depending on any significant change that takes place in the last 4-5 months of the fiscal year, there could be some alteration in this estimate. There could be an upside