The first advance estimates of GDP growth for FY21 at -7.7 per cent is in line with our (CARE Ratings) projection of -7.7-7.9 per cent. This is also like what RBI has projected at -7.5 per cent for FY21. The approach to such forecasts is important as the Central Statistics Office extrapolates growth rates based on the most recent numbers that are available for various sectors. This also means that depending on any significant change that takes place in the last 4-5 months of the fiscal year, there could be some alteration in this estimate. There could be an upside to this estimate in terms of less negativity though may not be very significant as present conditions show.
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