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Indian economy likely to grow at 6% in 2020, says Blackstone report

Titled Ten Surprises for 2020, the report is a list unexpected events that could influence and shape the sociopolitical landscapes worldwide for this year

Pavan Lall  |  Mumbai 

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The emerging markets continue to have uneven performance but India recovers from decelerating growth, the report says

The latest annual global markets report by private equity player Blackstone's top executives — Vice-Chairman Byron Wien and Chief Investment Strategist Joe Zidle — mention India in it for the first time in more than three decades that the report is being published.

Titled Ten Surprises for 2020, the report is a list unexpected events that could influence and shape the sociopolitical landscapes worldwide for this year. In a pointer to India, the single closest ‘also-ran’ surprise that didn't make the top 10 projections has to do with the subcontinent.

Specifically, the recently published report says, “Fears of an economic crisis in India are allayed. The emerging markets continue to have uneven performance but India recovers from decelerating growth. The Narendra Modi government continues business-friendly growth reforms, the economy grows at 6 per cent and the market rises 20 per cent.”

Wishful thinking or cautious optimism, either way the also-rans are essentially ideas that failed to make the top ten list not because they were not as key as other suppositions or then because the authors of the report deemed that they weren’t as comfortable ranking them as part of the top ten, the report goes on to clarify. So, what made the top ten list?

They included the American economy missing forecasts but dodging a recession; the rise of inequality and climate change becoming key election themes, along with Trump’s resilience in the White House despite impeachment proceedings that fail to convict or remove him; there is no comprehensive Phase Two trade deal that limits China’s ability to acquire intellectual property; and the reality of a self-driving car is pushed further into the future.

What were other also-rans on? The report points to the beginning of seeing artificial intelligence as a paper tiger and the so-called AI apocalypse fails to materialise in the same way as the Y2K bug failed to do so within the American economy 20 years ago.

Also, economic problems in Russia intensify despite the rising price of oil and its leader Vladimir Putin’s influence as a world diminishes as he attempts to maintain his stature on the world stage through closer ties with China, the report said.

First Published: Wed, January 08 2020. 01:06 IST
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