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Some numbers suggest there are early signs of an economic recovery. Services activity, as captured by the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), rose to a 17-month high in June. The Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5 in June. Car sales bounced back in June.
But it may be too early to celebrate. The core sector data indicate the worst is not over. The government's revenue growth continues to be subdued, which, coupled with high oil prices and poor rains, could hamper recovery.
