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After a steep fall in manufacturing output in October, there are concerns in the agriculture sector as well.
Sowing of rabi crops, which started on a sluggish pace, maintained its weak run during the week ended December 12, triggering concerns that overall acreage might remain 1-1.5 million hectares less than last year.
According to the latest data from the agriculture ministry, sowing of kharif crops has been completed in around 47.07 million hectares till Friday as against 50.36 million hectares during the same period last year. The normal area covered during the same period is around 62.41 million hectares. Normal area is the area covered during the last five years and acts as a strong indicator of the sowing progress. In 2013-14, rabi crops were sown in around 60 million hectares.
Low acreage during the rabi season, coupled with drop in kharif production has also fuelled fears that farm growth in 2014-15 is expected to be around 2.5-3%, down from 4.7% in 2013-14. Farm growth had slipped to 3.2% in the second quarter of 2014-15 financial year as against 5% during the same period last year. In the April-June quarter it was 3.5%.
As per the government’s first advance estimate, foodgrains production in 2014-15 is expected to be around 120.27 million tonne, around 9 million tonnesless than last year.
Production of rice is expected to be 88 million tonne as against 91.69 million tonne last year, while that of coarse cereals is expected to be 27.05 million tonne as against 31.25 million tonne last year.
Wheat, which is the biggest foodgrain grown during the rabi season, has been planted in around 24.19 million hectares as against 25.13 million hectares during the same period last year. The normal area under wheat is around 29.71 million hectares during the same period.
“A clear picture on rabi acreage will emerge around end of December, but going by the trend so far it seems acreage of most crops will remain less than 2013,” a senior agriculture ministry official said.
He said the main reason for the drop in area has been low moisture on soil due to poor southwest monsoon and also delayed harvest of preceding kharif crops. “There could be a fall of around 1-1.5 million hectares in rabi acreage this year,” another official said.
The data showed that among other crops, pulses have been planted in around 11.13 million hectares, around 11% less than the acreage in same period last year.
Oilseeds have been sown in around 6.99 million hectares, down from 7.53 million hectares during the same period last year. “Its not that southwest monsoon has been deficient this year, but since then there has been very little rainfall activity,” the official said.
Data from India Meteorological Department (IMD) showed that from October to December 12, the southwest monsoon has been around 34% below normal. Usually, the country receives around 112.1 millimeters of rains, but this year it has received just around 74.5 millimeters of rains.
The only saving grace has been the reservoir level in 84 major reservoirs across the country, water in which was estimated at 97.41 billion cubic meters as on December 11. This was 63% of their total storage capacity and 84% of last year’s storage.
Rabi Acreage In Million Hectares (Till December 12)
NOTE: Total might not match as all crops have not been included
Source: Department of Agriculture
Rabi Acreage In Million Hectares (Till December 12)
| Crops | 2013-14 | 2014-15 |
| Wheat | 25.13 | 24.19 |
| Coarse Cereals | 5.06 | 4.62 |
| Pulses | 12.47 | 11.13 |
| Oilseeds | 7.53 | 6.99 |
| Total | 50.36 | 47.07 |
NOTE: Total might not match as all crops have not been included
Source: Department of Agriculture
