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A strong pick-up in the southwest monsoon this month, the final one of the 2014 season, has narrowed the overall rain deficit to 13 per cent as on Friday. A further four percentage reduction in the deficit (from the long-period average of 890 mm) will ensure 2014 wouldn't be classified as a drought year.
However, there are pockets of distress. Concerns remain over Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and the Marathwada region of Maharashtra. The situation has improved in these places but not as much as to end the drought fear.
The improvement in the total nationwide rainfall has been mainly due to excessive showers in Jammu & Kashmir and some other parts.
Sowing of kharif crops, which was in its final phase, was completed in 98.65 million hectares (mha) as of Friday. This, though lower than the 102.07 mha in 2013, was better than the normal average (of the past five years) of 98.4 mha.
According to India Meteorological Department (IMD), rainfall across the country till Friday was 654.1 mm. The country normally receives 890 mm during the four-month southwest monsoon season, termed the Long Period Average (LPA). The four-month period starts in June and ends in September. In 2009, when India suffered its previous big drought, the southwest monsoon was 23 per cent below normal till September 5 of that year.
The met office classifies the monsoon to be normal nationally only if the total rainfall during the season is within plus or minus 10 per cent of the LPA, i.e 890 mm. Rain below 10 per cent is termed below normal. With the southwest monsoon expected to remain active over major parts of west, central, peninsular and north-west India till the coming Tuesday, there is a possibility of total seasonal rainfall falling below 10 per cent of LPA.
"It could be a touch-and-go situation and the cumulative rainfall deficit might remain nine to 11 per cent of the LPA. In the first case, it will be termed a normal monsoon year; in the second, it can be called marginally below-normal," Ajit Tyagi, former head of IMD, told Business Standard.
Rainfall has been normal or excess in 23 meteorological sub-divisions, of the 36 in the country, as of Friday. It has been deficient or scanty in the remaining 13. Till the end of August, rainfall was scanty or deficient in around half of the 36 sub-divisions.
Water storage
The late surge in rain is considered beneficial for the coming rabi sowing season, as it will leave adequate moisture in the soil. Much would depend on the level of water in reservoirs. The Central Water Commission said the level in all regions is below last year's, except in central India. In North India, the level in reservoirs was 79 per cent of full capacity as of Friday. It was 93 per cent at the same time last year. In Eastern India, it was at 68 per cent against 75 per cent earlier; in western India, 70 per cent against 76 per cent; in South India, 68 per cent against 81 per cent. The sole exception was central India, where the level was at 74 per cent of the full capacity as of Friday, against 58 per cent in the same period last year. Overall, it was at 71 per cent of reservoirs' full capacity in the country, compared to 87 per cent during the same period last year.
The annual monsoon rain is vital for agriculture as over half of India's farmlands lack irrigation. The farm sector produce accounts for 14 per cent of gross domestic product. Despite its falling share in India's economy, agriculture still employs the highest number of people.
