Statsguru: GDP growth to fall from 8.2% in Q1FY19 to 6.9% in Q4FY19

On the impact of rising crude oil prices, the RBI estimates that a 10 per cent increase in crude oil prices pushes the headline inflation rate up by 13 bps

The monetary Policy report 2018 released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) provides detailed insights into the state of the economy.
 
On inflation, it shows that professional forecasters expect the retail inflation rate to fall in the coming months, averaging 4.1 per cent in Q2 and Q3, but rising to 4.5 per cent in Q4FY19 (Chart 1). This projection is largely in line with the RBI’s projections. And while the food inflation rate has moderated recently, the RBI finds that the recent trajectory of food inflation has been shaped by vegetables, fruit and pulses rather than cereals (Chart