BJP ignores ally, bets on old war horse for victory in Gujarat's Ghosi

In the 1980s, there used to be a minister called Kalpnath Rai. A former Socialist and a firebrand follower of Ram Manohar Lohia, he became famous for describing Rajiv Gandhi as ‘heera’ (diamond). In the prevalent atmosphere of sycophancy – you had to praise your leader loudly and publicly if you wanted to be noticed from among the 400-odd MPs the Congress had in 1984 – this paid off. He became a minister. His stint as MP from the Ghosi constituency – which he represented four times in the Lok Sabha – is still discussed by voters in Eastern Uttar Pradesh which is considered endemically backward.
 
Kalpnath died in 1999 when he was just 58. But the infrastructure development initiated by him continues to stand testament to the legacy of the Congress. Rai built bridges and the longest (and first) flyover India has seen in Ghosi. People in Maunath Bhanjan, a part of Ghosi, say that after he died in 1999, the region has never seen a leader like Rai. The area is dominated by mafia leaders who run politics by coercion.

 
This is an unsustainable tactics in politics. Other alternatives emerged: including caste-based parties. The Samajwadi Party’s Yadav base and the Bahujan Samaj Party’s Dalit base remained intact over the years, barring minor aberrations (like in 2014 when both communities voted for the BJP). But other parties came up, questioning the basis of reservation for the socially backward. What was the use of affirmative action when it was all cornered by the Yadavs and Chamars? they asked. One such party was that of Om Prakash Rajbhar called the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP), formed in 2002, having only a minuscule regional presence in eastern and parts of central UP, but important enough for the BJP to offer them a ministership in the UP government.
 
Eastern UP, on an average, has 18 per cent Rajbhars, mostly landless labourers, and in some assembly segments like Sehar and Selampur in Ballia district, their share in the population is as high as 35 per cent. “In 30-50 constituencies, if Rajbhars decide to vote for one candidate, the electoral results can tilt one way,” says Keshav Rajbhar, a worker of the SBSP. Land is in control of the upper castes, especially the Bhumihars. The Rajbhar community has no assets. It wanted the BJP to recognise its social and economic backwardness and supported the party initially. But within months, the relationship fell apart and now Om Prakash Rajbhar, rather like Uddhav Thackeray, is the most vocal critic of the Yogi Adityanath government despite being a minister in it.
 
The Rajbhar community is active in Ghosi. In 2014, the BJP won this seat for the first time, fielding Harinarayan Rajbhar who managed to get 36 per cent of the votes. His opponent was BSP’s Dara Singh Chauhan who got 22 per cent. Following them closely was the region’s biggest mafia don, Mukhtar Ansari, who got 16 per cent.
 

This time, things are different. The BJP has relied on its old war horse, Harinarayan Rajbhar, ignoring the demand of the SBSP that they be allotted the seat. So, in retaliation, the SBSP has put up Mahendra Rajbhar, an independent who contested the assembly elections but was backed by the BJP. The BSP, rather surprisingly, has fielded a Bhumihar, Atul Rai, and there are several criminal cases against him. The CPI also has a candidate, Atul Kumar Anjan, though the CPI’s vote-share has been coming down over the years. The Congress has a candidate too: Balkrishna Chuhan.
 
“This time, the seat will definitely go in favour of the gathbandhan” says Dr HN Bahuguna, a doctor and Dalit activist.
 
His reasoning: The Rajbhar community is split between the SBSP and the BJP. The powerful Bhumihars  will manage to swing the tide away from the SP-BSP alliance. And  the sizeable Muslims (nearly 20 per cent), dominated by the weaver community, will vote to defeat the BJP

 
The Muslims of Ghosi have a litany of grievances. They were badly hit by demonetisation – weavers here used to have the capacity to offer jobs to others. “Now, we are reduced to working on daily wages ourselves,” says Iftekhar Ahmad, a weaver. The Muslims say they will work to defeat the BJP.
 
In the circumstances,  the Ghosi Lok Sabha seat is going to see a majority-minority debate amid a subtext of development and income. To win over the Muslims – who are not averse to being won over – the BJP needs to re-build opportunities for employment and marketing of the commodity the region is famous for: Textiles.