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As the southwest monsoon makes a steady progress across most parts of India, the prospects of having a bumper harvest during the kharif season has brightened, provided the rains maintain the momentum in the coming weeks.
"The first indications are very positive for kharif, but all will depend on how the rains pan out in the next two months as July and August are the most crucial months for sowing of kharif crops during the four-month rainy season," a season government official said. Rice, sugarcane, oilseeds, cotton, jute and pulses are some of the main crops grown during the kharif season, sowing for which starts around June-July, while the crop is harvested in October.
According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), July is expected to receive the highest 28 cm of rainfall, while August will receive around 26 cm out of the total 89 cm during the four-month southwest monsoon season that starts from June.
In Gujarat, which received the season's first pre-monsoon showers in the last three days, the timely onset is being seen as beneficial for the cotton crop, which had suffered vastly last year due to a sudden break in showers.
A full-fledged monsoon is yet to set in. "The MET department has given June 12 as the onset of monsoon in the state (Gujarat). What we see now is the pre-season rains, caused due to local formation," said a state agriculture department official. However, farmers having irrigation facility have started sowing, mainly cotton. "These rains will benefit cotton sowing. We are waiting for report of sowing of other crops," said the official.
The rains have also lashed several parts of Maharashtra, Odisha, West Bengal, northeast states and Jharkhand, according to IMD. The MET office said the southwest monsoon was expected to gather further momentum in the coming days and cover the entire Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Maharashtra and eastern parts of the country, including east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand. In the first week of June, the southwest monsoon was just one per cent below normal, with southern India receiving the maximum 62 per cent above average rainfall. Rainfall in some parts of northwest India was deficient, but experts believe it will be bridged once the rains set in.
"This (the early onset of southwest monsoon) is definitely a positive development and will have an impact on sowing and further growth of kharif crops, but all will depend on the fact whether the momentum is maintained in the coming weeks," said Ramesh Chand, director of the National Centre for Agricultural Economics and Policy Research (NCAP).
The MET office has predicted that southwest monsoon in 2013 will be normal with quantitatively rains being 98 per cent of the long period average (LPA).
A department of agriculture data showed that rice has been planted in around 0.52 million hectares till last week, which was 19 per cent less than last year, while oilseeds was sown in around 7,000 hectares, almost 27 per cent less than the same period last year.
