Edible oil prices to remain subdued till June 2013 on ample supplies: Religare

Much depends on how the south west monsoon progresses over India and on soybean crop sowing prospects in the US

Domestic prices of soybean oil and palm oil (the two biggest edible oil imported into India) are expected to remain subdued during the first two quarters of 2013 (Till June 2013) because of ample global supplies, according to a recent research report by Religare Commodities Ltd.

The report said that thereafter much will depend on how the southwest monsoon progresses over India and also the soybean crop sowing prospects in the United States. “Any weather related disturbance may spark the prices again, leading to a recovery in prices in the third and fourth quarters of 2013 (July-December),” the report said.

It said in India, record import of edible oils during recent past and expectation of bumper production of mustard seed is likely to keep prices weak during medium term.

India is expected to import a record over 10 million tonnes of edible oil in 2012-13 crop marketing year that started in November.
According to the government’s second advanced estimate of farm production, though total oilseeds output in 2012-13 is expected to be marginally less at 29.47 million tonnes, from 29.80 million tonnes last year because of poor southwest monsoon, but production of mustard seed, which is cultivated during the rabi season is expected to be 7.36 million tonnes, almost 11% more than last year.