Emerging markets performance tied to oil price surge, says Nomura

Rising oil prices and higher US yields will exert pressure on the rupee

If the crude oil prices continue to go up, there could be variations in the performance of emerging markets (EMs). Markets such as Saudi Arabia, Brazil and Russia could gain at the expense of oil importers such as India, the Philippines and Indonesia.

“If the recent oil price rise continues and is more supply-side driven, we would expect it to drive major differentiation in EM performance, hurting large net oil importers with weak economic fundamentals, possibly by more than it benefits large net oil exporters,” said Nomura, in a April 25 note. “The clear-cut winners include Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Colombia