Indian Monsoon Positive Despite Moderate El Nino Forecast- Pravin S. Lunkad, President, The Solvent Extractors' Association of India

Indian Southwest Monsoon is knocking in and most likely to hit Indian coast by 29th May (slightly earlier than normal date of June 1st). Normal Monsoon onset is the good sign for Indian Agriculture and economy. As good monsoon is the backbone to our Nation and play a pivotal role in total food grains production including oilseeds. Last season, India received uneven and poor rainfall at 88% during the Monsoon season. Thus, any abnormality will be more pronounced to impact Indian Crops production scenarios. Most of Meteorologists have announced an El Nino (Moderate intensity with inclination towards strong) with long term forecast of below Normal rains. Albeit we have seen divergence on intensity and the real implication in context of Indian monsoon. Nino index 3.4 supporting consistent El Nino developing, basis pacific sea surface temperature but other Nino indexes showing an ease off compared to last week. Below Monsoon rains could be a reality but how confident are we on distribution of rains in terms of intensity of rains and geographic coverage ? We have seen in the past, even during below normal monsoon, but well spread at regular intervals resulted in to good crop.

Indian monsoon onset on time has been preceded with above normal pre-monsoon showers across India. Indian Oceanic Dipole movement (IOD) and other atmospheric parameters could drive Indian Monsoon positive despite of moderate El Nino forecast. IOD is an indicator of temperature gradient across tropical Indian Ocean. The influences of ENSO and IOD events on the Indian monsoon rainfall are, but, opposite to one another. Positive IOD enhances Indian Monsoon rains. Frequent occurrence of positive IOD period is characterized by normal to better rains in contrast to El Nino occurrence impact. Only concern is that IOD event cycle period lasts for shorter period compare to El Nino.

 

Nevertheless, the recent value of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index is positive. There's good news on the monsoon front for farmers and policy makers. Rainfall is likely to be better than the gloomy forecasts of last month, particularly in June & July when farmers plant crops. Hopefully, will see more smiling faces!!

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