Abandoning Kashmir

BJP-PDP divorce smacks of political opportunism

The state of Jammu and Kashmir has been thrown once again into political uncertainty, as the Bharatiya Janata Party unceremoniously abandoned its alliance with the Peoples Democratic Party, leaving the latter without a majority in the state assembly and forcing Mehbooba Mufti to tender her resignation as the chief minister. It remains unclear what the future holds. The principal opposition party, the National Conference (NC), has called for new elections — but the Union government, run by the BJP, might prefer to hold off elections as long as possible. After all, the timing of the BJP's departure is strong evidence that it seeks to make political capital in the rest of India from the situation in Kashmir. It is deeply unfortunate that New Delhi's decision-making on this subject is driven by political opportunism. In an election year, it sees the short-term electoral benefits of taking an extreme stand on the Kashmir issue. Polarising the electorate in north India on such matters as the revocation of the Kashmir-specific Article 370 was difficult when the BJP was in a governing coalition with the PDP. Departing the state government gives it space to pivot sharply on such divisive issues. 

While this may appear to be in the BJP's immediate political interest, there is no doubt that treating the government in India's troubled northernmost state as a pawn in a larger electoral game is a deeply cynical ploy and not in  national interest. For that matter, the original BJP-PDP coalition was itself an odd decision; the two parties could find little common ground. Unsurprisingly, the coalition was seen as a betrayal by their voters in the state. As a consequence, the situation on the ground worsened; the notion that mainstream politics was corrupt and self-serving was strengthened by the very existence of the coalition. Even worse, the government's political instincts were poor. Instead of addressing popular discontent politically, its efforts on the ground were highly ill-advised — the use of poor crowd control measures, for example, pellet guns. The government seemed to have turned its own people into enemies. 

As one indicator of the growth of discontent, consider the turnout levels at the by-election in April last year for the Srinagar Lok Sabha constituency. Only 7 per cent of voters turned out; eight persons were killed in police firing. When certain areas had to be re-polled as a consequence of the violence, the turnout fell further. In 2014, the constituency saw a turnout of over 25 per cent. The fall reflects how poorly the BJP-PDP coalition has managed the sentiments of the people of the state. Ironically, the collapse of the government will suit both alliance partners. While the BJP can tell voters that it tried hard but needed a bigger mandate to deliver results, the PDP can blame all the failures on its former ally. Of course, the PDP's predecessor in government, the NC, was also leaden-footed in office and slow to respond to events such as the Amarnath protests, the Shopian rape-murder and the floods. As a result, New Delhi faces popular discontent that cannot be blamed on Pakistani incitement but on the fecklessness of the mainstream political parties. India's politicians have failed Kashmir yet again. The prime minister has spoken conciliating words in the past to Kashmiris — but his party and its erstwhile coalition partner behaved in a manner that belied his words.