Foreign visits by prime ministers and presidents are often seen as prosaic, accustomed events, especially when great powers are not involved. Why then is Prime Minister Narendra Modi's forthcoming journey to three Indian Ocean neighbours alive with possibilities?
Geographic regions are man-made constructs, neat boxes in which groups of countries are clustered. We become so habituated to such categorisation that it takes a questioning mind to produce from set components a new pattern, which reframes the rubric. When that happens, new consequential actions become visible.
Sri Lanka belongs to the Saarc box in our sandpit. Mauritius is way out at the outer fringe of the Indian Ocean; sometimes called our 'near-neighbour', it belongs to Southern Africa. It also occupies a place in another cluster, a country of 'old' Indian migration, when during the 19th century ruthless colonialism tore asunder village communities, from the depths of eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and parts of southern India, luring migrants to work on sugar plantations and build railway lines, in the remote tracts of its empire. Seychelles, when we think of it at all, evokes a tiny collection of islands off Africa's east coast, a tourism paradise.
For the first time, an Indian PM is to visit these Indian Ocean island states during March 2015, in effect getting them and us, to reposition and deepen mutual ties. What does this visit portend?
Consider their heterogeneity. Sri Lanka, with a population of 20 million, is closest to us in geography and ancient linkages, as also in contemporary ethnic ties; its Tamil minority, descendants of labour brought in by British colonialists to work on coffee and tea plantations, became an overlay to the 'Eelam Tamils', whose ancestors had migrated in the second century onwards. That made has made the fate of the Tamils, thanks to the LTTE struggle, an element in India's domestic politics. Seychelles, smallest among the four, is an archipelago off East Africa, over a 100 islands, with a population of just 92,000. Mauritius, with 1.2 million, has a special claim to our affection. Originally uninhabited, it is peopled by migrants, from Africa and France, plus the 70 per cent that are from India.
They are also exemplars in interesting ways. Each is a significant destination for global tourists. That plus astute economy management has propelled two of them to middle-income status in world rankings; Sri Lanka, with per capita GDP at $7,000 in PPP terms, is headed that way too, and is the most advanced South Asian state in social indicators. Another commonality: two have witnessed recent elections, Sri Lanka just a month back, and Mauritius in September 2014. Overall, Mr Modi will find fertile ground to take each relationship forward. What might we expect?
First, covering all of them in a single visit reframes our perception, and theirs as well; it operationalises a new 'Indian Ocean Diplomacy'. As a follow-up, the foreign ministry could shift the management of relations with them to a new territorial division. That would ensure closer attention to all of them. It could also lead to more attention to The Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA), established in 1995, with its headquarters in Mauritius, which needs new impetus.
Second, in Colombo and in Port Louis, the new governments are more responsive to cooperation with India. These opportunities have to be handled with care and respect for the small states. It entails understanding their perspective, and the choices they face. None will concur in an 'either-or' choice between India and China. Even small states practice their own versions of what we call our strategic autonomy doctrine. Yes, we face competition from China, which has deep pockets and is currently embarked on an ambitious 'maritime silk route' project, part of its 'One Belt, One Road' plan, to which it has committed an investment of $40 billion, over an unspecified timeframe. A quasi-landlocked China seeks routes to the Indian Ocean, so vital to its trade and energy lifelines. We sometimes appear to forget that India is at the very hub of the Indian Ocean, with a centrality that few large nations enjoy in relation to their maritime environment. That should not produce complacency, but it should furnish us a platform for well-planned actions vis-à-vis our oceanic neighbours.
Third, it does not pay to play domestic political games in neighbouring states, of a kind we have attempted in the past. Among the four countries covered here, I am best familiar with Mauritius, where I served from 1989-92. That time included a general election that was held in mid-1991, during which India remained on the sidelines, to the point where none of the contending parties involved India in their campaign, in that country's robust, even contentious political environment. But I did come across some Indian visitors who attempted minor interference, predicated on their experience of Indian politics - one of them had to be warned (after the local authorities alerted us) that expulsion was being considered. Later, during the Mauritius election campaign of August 2000, which I witnessed for a couple of days during a transit visit, I saw that our agencies did not always practise self-restraint. In a word, such games are dangerous and leave a corrosive residue of local antipathy.
Fourth, it is the reinforcement and expansion of economic links that is our greatest strength. That entails shifting our negotiation stance beyond mercantile arguments, viewing free trade and investment agreements against a larger strategic perspective. Do we forget how we dragged our feet over an FTA with Sri Lanka in the late 1990s, and that it took a decisive decision by Prime Minister Vajpayee in 1999 to break the deadlock, leading to an accord that has paid such rich dividend to both countries? One hopes PM Modi would invoke that same largeness of spirit and vision in pushing forward on each of these bilateral economic relationships.
Fifth, we have acted in the past to safeguard these neighbours and to protect a peaceful security environment, whether in the Seychelles in the 1980s when they faced attack by South African mercenaries, or during episodes of internal coup attempts, as in the Seychelles and the Maldives. That has involved discreet naval backup. Such challenges will persist and require adequate naval capabilities.
The Modi government deserves credit for prioritising neighbourhood diplomacy, driven by a holistic vision.
The writer is at the Institute of Chinese Studies, Delhi
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