Signals from Gujarat

CMs have limited value in a presidential-style govt

With the fifth chief ministerial change in as many months, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appears to be moving closer towards its political project of establishing a presidential-style government. The appointment of a relative political novice, Bhupendra Patel, as chief minister of Gujarat 15 months ahead of the Assembly elections suggests that the central party command is keen to have a more adaptable candidate in place when it comes to shaping the campaign. The position of his predecessor Vijay Rupani, only the second chief minister after Mr Modi to complete five years in office, had been weakened after the relatively poor showing in the 2017 Assembly election when the party retained power by a narrow majority in the 182-seat Assembly with 99 seats, losing 16 seats to the Congress. Subsequent defections and bypoll victories have raised the party’s majority to 112 but strong criticism from both domestic and international media over Mr Rupani’s inept handling of the second Covid-19 wave — including evidence that death data was being fudged — may have, in the party’s perception, impacted its electoral chances.

It is also notable that the new incumbent represents a prominent sub-caste in the Patidar community, which has been conducting a high-decibel campaign for job reservations for the past five years. Initially, the BJP under then chief minister Anandiben Patel had followed a hard-line stance against the movement, which had the effect of making Hardik Patel, now Gujarat Congress working president, into a political leader of some heft. The Patidar community accounts for 12 to 14 per cent of the state’s population but it constitutes a powerful and vocal voice in the state’s socio-economic milieu. Although Mr Patel is by no means an inexperienced administrator, especially in municipal administration, he has never held a ministerial post and his experience in state politics is limited. He is a first-time MLA, having contested from Ghatlodia, the constituency held by Anandiben Patel before she stepped down as chief minister to become governor of Uttar Pradesh. He is certainly a political lightweight compared with the other contenders for the job — Nitin Patel, deputy chief minister; former minister of state for home Gordhan Zadafia; and Praful K Patel, administrator of Dadra and Nagar Haveli, and Daman and Diu — all of whom have strong independent bases.
 

The flurry of chief ministerial changes in states is being interpreted by many as smart political moves by the ruling party to fight off anti-incumbency, but it does indicate a sense of nervousness as well ahead of elections. In any case, appointing political novices has not always paid off — in Uttarakhand, the party had to replace one chief minister after four months following his somewhat gormless handling of the Kumbh Mela-related Covid-19 crisis. But it is noteworthy that even those candidates with established independent mass bases — such as Karnataka’s Basavaraj Bommai and Himanta Biswa Sarma— have conspicuously aligned themselves to the BJP party line. Mr Bommai, for instance, was handpicked by his predecessor B S Yediyurappa to replace him as chief minister when it was becoming clear that the latter was growing unpopular within his state unit. Though he is a socialist by conviction, he has been careful to support the party central command, including on such nationally contentious issues as the Citizenship Amendment Act and the National Register of Citizens. Mr Sarma, a former protégé of Congress chief minister Tarun Gogoi, has done the same.