Withdrawal symptoms

CAA is hurting India's interests at home and abroad

Realpolitik in the shape of the March 13 EU-India summit in Brussels may explain why the European Union has distanced itself from the six resolutions against the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) that have been submitted in the European Parliament by lawmakers from six political groups. But the fact that both the European Parliament and the US Congress have thought fit to offer criticism of domestic Indian legislation — the criticisms include those of the reading down of Article 370 for Jammu & Kashmir — should offer the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leadership pause for thought. With the tenacious Shaheen Bagh protest in the capital offering a template for protests around the country and several opposition-ruled states passing resolutions against the CAA, the government may have to face the inconvenient truth that this Act may not be in India’s best interests. The legislation has already cost the country goodwill with allies as valuable as Bangladesh (which, among other things, offers useful intelligence on Islamic terrorism) and Afghanistan (which viewed India as partner in its development). It is clear from the defensive responses to international censure and the hard-line pushback at home (Home Minister Amit Shah urged voters in Delhi a couple of days ago to press the EVM button with such “anger” that the “current” is felt in Shaheen Bagh) that the leadership is drawing on the strength of the BJP’s 2019 mandate and the potential of the Indian market in a slowing global economy and the stresses in the Chinese economy. The party may discover, however, that soft power counts for much in global diplomacy, the conduct of which demands greater subtlety. 

Three hints of India’s weakening position in the international community should not be ignored. The first is the Saudi Arabia-led Organisation of Islamic Cooperation’s call for a foreign ministers’ meeting to discuss the situation in Jammu & Kashmir in December, soon after protests erupted over the CAA. Saudi Arabia has been India’s closest partner in West Asia, its second largest supplier of crude oil, and potential investor in the country’s refining business. The fact that it acceded to Pakistan’s demands is a discomfiting sign for India. The second is India’s invitation to Pakistan to attend the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation dialogue, which New Delhi will be hosting for the first time. The government has hyped the move as an attempt to thaw relations frozen since January last year. But the fact that India’s invitation stems from diplomatic initiative dominated by Pakistan ally China is significant. And finally, there is India’s inability to get Pakistan blacklisted under the Financial Action Task Force on terror financing. There are indications that, owing to its critical role in Afghan peace negotiations, Pakistan may get six months’ time to comply with rules.

Meanwhile, the negative publicity from the persistent protests at home is distracting the government’s attention from the biggest problem of its own creation, slowing economic growth. Equally, images of protestors are unlikely to encourage foreign investors to view India as a stable polity for doing business. Admitting to a mistake is not something politicians anywhere in the world readily agree to, and doing so is certainly not in the current leadership’s playbook. But not implementing legislation — in this case the CAA — and halting the roll-out of the controversial National Population Register enumeration that weaponises the legislation would go a long way towards allaying the misgivings that have polarised independent India and damaged its global reputation as a vibrant, inclusive democracy.