Statsguru: Six charts explain India's global economic growth standing

Last week, data released by the government showed that the Indian economy expanded by 6.3 per cent in the July-September quarter.

A Business Standard analysis found that the country mirrored the global trend, with the rate of growth slowing from the same quarter last year. Further analysis of data from the pre-pandemic period (2019) shows a faster recovery for the Indian economy.

Only China, according to Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) data, had registered a faster growth rate.


 

An analysis of the expenditure components of growth showed that India was probably the only major economy to register a double-digit growth rate in private consumption in July-September 2022 when compared with the same period in 2019.

While most of the western world witnessed an expansion of the government, the Indian government’s final consumption expenditure contracted 20 per cent for this period.


 

Meanwhile, investment measured by gross fixed capital formation, rose 20.8 per cent.



A look at the output side also reveals an improvement for the economy from the pre-pandemic period. Agriculture, forestry and fishing expanded 38 per cent in nominal terms and 15.6 per cent at constant prices. In the UK, the agriculture sector grew 35 per cent between the first quarter of 2019 and 2022 while China witnessed 25 per cent growth. But the UK and Europe have been witnessing higher rates of inflation than India. Manufacturing expanded at a much slower pace for India. The country witnessed 25 per cent growth in nominal terms and 9.6 per cent in real terms.


 

The July-September GDP data for India shows 4 per cent annual contraction in manufacturing. For the first half of the financial year, manufacturing shows only 0.1 per cent rise in 2022-23 from the previous year and 6.6 per cent increase from 2019.



Mining and quarrying also contracted by 3 per cent in the July-September quarter.
 

As the world slumps into a recession, India will have a tough task keeping its growth rate high. Recently released estimates by the OECD show that India’s growth will fall below 6 per cent in the coming year.