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Sensex: 2014 vs 2019

The BSE benchmark index’s movement between the election result day and the Union Budget announcement in 2014 and 2019


16 May to 18 July


23 May to 4 July


The stock exchange almost always reacts to changing dynamics of politics — whether in a positive or negative way — particularly those like a national election result, Budget announcement or fall of a government.

At the time of the previous general elections, in 2014, the index had risen 1,520 points (6.3 per cent) between the announcement of the poll result on May 16, 2014, and the Budget announcement on July 18, 2019. While the Sensex had gained 216 points over its previous close on the day of the result to close at 24,121, it had gone on a hit a peak of 26,100 during a period (1,979 points higher) before setting at 25,641 on the day of the Budget.

On May 23, the day the Lok Sabha election 2019 results were announced, the BSE benchmark Sensex had slipped 298 points from its previous close, mainly because the market had already priced in the return of the Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to power at the Centre. However, the index has been rising since. On June 3, the index closed at a high of 40,267 (a rise of 1,456 points), breaching the psychological barrier of 40,000. It will be interesting to note the net gain or loss for the benchmark index between the announcement of the result and the new government’s maiden Budget on July 5.

Will the index repeat its enthusiasm of 2014 in favour of the Narendra Modi government a second time? We will know on July 5.