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Hours after imposing a 25 per cent tariff on Indian imports and additional “penalties”, United States President Donald Trump called India and Russia “dead economies” in a social media post—a remark that overlooks the economic scale, growth momentum, and structural importance of the India–Russia partnership, even as bilateral trade remains exposed to geopolitical risks.
India’s economic data tells a different story
“I don’t care what India does with Russia. They can take their dead economies down together, for all I care,” Trump wrote. He added that the US has “done very little business with India, their Tariffs are too high, among the highest in the World. Likewise, Russia and the USA do almost no business together.”
Numbers game: India
At $4.19 trillion, India surpassed Japan as the fourth-largest economy in the world in 2025, trailing behind Germany ($4.74 trillion), China ($19.23 trillion), and the United States ($30.50 trillion). India is also projected to become the third-largest global economy by 2030, with its GDP expected to reach $7.3 trillion.
Key figures from India’s economic performance
Latest government data from June 2025 shows:
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- Nominal GDP tripled to ₹331.03 trillion in 2024–25 from ₹106.57 trillion in 2014–15
- Real GDP grew by 6.5 per cent in 2024–25; nominal GDP rose by 9.9 per cent
- Real GVA increased by 6.4 per cent; nominal GVA by 9.5 per cent
- Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) rose by 7.3 per cent, reaching its highest share of GDP (61.8 per cent) since 2002–03
- Cumulative FDI inflows reached ₹89.85 trillion ($1.05 trillion) by December 2024 — nearly twenty times higher than in FY01
India’s exports have soared since 2014
- Total exports surged to $825 billion in 2024–25 from $468 billion in 2013–14
- Merchandise exports grew to $437.42 billion from $310 billion
- Services exports more than doubled to $387 billion from $158 billion
Numbers game: Russia
At an estimated $2.076 trillion, Russia’s economy is projected to be the world’s 11th largest by nominal GDP, according to the International Monetary Fund.
According to Rosstat’s 2024 Statistical Pocketbook:
- GDP (2023): 156.4 trillion (local currency)
- Per capita GDP: 1.08 million (local currency)
- GDP growth (real): 5.9 per cent. However, international bodies estimate it at 3.6 per cent.
- Inflation (CPI): 7.4 per cent
- Industrial production index (2023): 104.1 per cent
Top industries by GDP share:
- Mining and quarrying: 32.0 per cent
- Trade: 13.7 per cent
- Manufacturing: 12.4 per cent
Exports (2023): $425.1 billion
Imports (2023): $285.1 billion
Main export: Mineral products ($260.1 billion)
Main import: Machinery and equipment ($145.8 billion)
Top trade partners: China, India, Turkey
India–Russia trade has reached historic highs
According to data from the Indian Embassy in Moscow, bilateral trade reached a record $68.7 billion in FY25, up from $10.1 billion pre-pandemic. Indian exports stood at $4.88 billion, while imports from Russia were $63.84 billion, dominated by crude oil, fertilisers and metals.
India has invested around $16 billion in Russia, largely in oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and IT. Russian investments in India—estimated at $20 billion—are concentrated in energy, petrochemicals, steel and railways. The two sides aim to grow bilateral trade to $100 billion by 2030 and bilateral investment to $50 billion by 2025.
Crude oil ties between India and Russia remain strong
Earlier this month, when asked about US sanctions on countries importing Russian oil, Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said: “India will buy oil from wherever needed, in the interest of the Indian consumer.” India currently sources 35 to 40 per cent of its crude oil imports from Russia.
Meanwhile, India continues to diversify its trade base with new and ongoing free trade agreements. A long-awaited FTA with the UK has been signed; negotiations are ongoing with the EU, Oman, Chile and New Zealand. India is also reviewing the Asean FTA to improve market access.
US tariffs could dent India’s growth outlook
Brokerage firms Nomura and Barclays warn that the new tariffs could reduce India’s 2025–26 GDP growth by 20 to 30 basis points. Nomura maintains a 6.2 per cent forecast but flags a 0.2-point downside risk; Barclays projects a 30-point hit.
The average US tariff on Indian goods has surged from 2.7 per cent to 20.6 per cent, driven by broad and sector-specific hikes—50 per cent on steel and aluminium, 25 per cent on auto parts.
India’s key exports to the US, including pharmaceuticals, smartphones, machinery, jewellery, textiles and auto parts, are expected to be affected. While pharma is temporarily exempt, Trump has signalled a possible 200 per cent global tariff on pharma imports, with a 12 to 18-month grace period.
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