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In a worrying development for India, the US intelligence community believes that the People's Republic of China (PRC) will continue to pursue the establishment of additional overseas military installations and access agreements, including in New Delhi's neighbourhood, with possible bases in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Seychelles, and the UAE being in Beijing's sights.
China could also pursue setting up military facilities in Cuba, Equatorial Guinea, Tajikistan, and Tanzania.
Published on March 11, an intelligence report, called the The Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community, said: "The People's Liberation Army (PLA) will continue to pursue the establishment of overseas military installations and access agreements in an attempt to project power and protect China's interests abroad."
The assessment, published by the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), added: "Beyond developing its military base in Djibouti and its military facility at Ream Naval Base in Cambodia, Beijing reportedly is considering pursuing military facilities in multiple locations, including — but not limited to — Myanmar (Burma), Cuba, Equatorial Guinea, Pakistan, Seychelles, Sri Lanka, Tajikistan, Tanzania, and the UAE."
Established in 2004, the ODNI is a US government agency with the task of integrating the country's intelligence community.
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To date, the PRC has only confirmed one overseas military facility, in Djibouti, a country located on the Horn of Africa. Operational since 2017, the Djibouti facility has access to the crucial Red Sea shipping lanes.
However, in December last year, a US State Department spokesperson said that Washington had serious concerns that Beijing was planning to have exclusive control over parts of Cambodia's Ream Naval Base, which had witnessed the arrival of Chinese warships that same month.
The US threat assessment also said that Chinese President Xi Jinping "envisions China as the preeminent power in East Asia and as a leading power on the world stage".
The report warned that the PRC was combining its economic heft, growing military power, and diplomatic and technological dominance to create a "coordinated approach" for securing what it views as its sovereign territory. Given the border dispute between India and China, this could have implications for New Delhi.
The relationship between India and China has remained tense since May 2020, when the PLA amassed troops in eastern Ladakh, leading to a deadly clash between the militaries of India and China at the Galwan Valley in June that same year. The Galwan clash resulted in the deaths of 20 Indian soldiers and at least four Chinese military personnel. For its part, New Delhi maintains that restoration of normalcy in its relations with Beijing is not possible as long as the situation at the borders remains abnormal.
Regarding China's long-term military goals, the US intelligence assessment said that Beijing would focus on building a "fully modernised national defence and military force by 2035" and turning the PLA into "a world-class military by 2049".
However, at least in the short to medium term, the report claimed that China lacked "recent warfighting experience", which could "weaken the PLA's effectiveness" and reduce President Xi's "willingness to initiate a conflict".
