H-1B visa holders, students worst-hit amid US illegal immigration crackdown

Cato analysis says legal immigration to the US has fallen far more than illegal crossings, with H-1B visas, students and families seeing sharp declines

The sharpest shift in US immigration under Donald Trump may not be at the border, but inside the legal system. A new analysis by David J. Bier of the Cato Institute argues that while illegal crossings have declined, legal immigration — especially high-skilled routes like H-1B visa, has taken a far bigger hit.

 

“As expected, President Trump has reduced illegal entries but his administration has reduced legal entries far more,” Bier said.

 

Legal immigration cuts outpace border decline

 

Bier’s core finding is stark: cuts to legal entries are roughly 2.5 times larger than the reduction in illegal crossings. He said illegal immigration had already been falling before Donald Trump took office, with much of the drop occurring earlier. The current administration, he added, has largely continued that trend.

   

By contrast, legal immigration has seen a sharp reversal. “The cut to legal entries was 2.5 times as large,” Bier said, adding that nearly three-quarters of the total drop in immigration now comes from legal pathways.

 

H-1B visas take a direct hit

 

Among the most affected are H-1B visas — a key route for high-skilled foreign workers, especially in technology, engineering and healthcare from India.

 

Bier estimates H-1B visa issuances have fallen by about 25 per cent, driven in part by a major policy change: a $100,000 fee imposed on companies petitioning for workers from outside the United States.

 

The impact has been immediate. In a court filing cited by Bier, petitions for such workers dropped by as much as 87 per cent after the fee was introduced. Since these visas are tied to new approvals, the full effect is still unfolding.

 

The shift marks a change for a programme long seen as central to US innovation and global talent recruitment.

 

The slowdown in H-1B visas is likely to have wider economic effects. These visas are widely used by US companies to fill specialised roles across sectors such as technology and healthcare.

 

Students, families also affected

 

The tightening of legal routes extends beyond skilled workers. International student visas dropped by about 40 per cent during peak periods, following visa suspensions, enforcement actions and country-specific bans.

 

Family-based immigration has also been affected. Visas for spouses and fiancés of US citizens are down by roughly 65 per cent, while broader immigrant visa categories have reduced under country bans and administrative delays.

 

Asylum, refugee pathways collapse

 

At the southern border, legal asylum entry has nearly disappeared. After the administration removed key entry processes, asylum seeker admissions fell by 99.9 per cent — from nearly 40,000 per month to just a few dozen.

 

Refugee admissions have also dropped by about 90 per cent following policy changes and tighter caps.

 

Bier said the data reflects a broader direction in policy. “It is not about stopping ‘illegal’ immigration,” he said. “It is a broader assault on all types of immigration.”

 

According to his estimates, about 72 per cent of the total reduction in immigration comes from cuts to legal entries, not illegal crossings.

 

What the numbers show

 

• Legal immigration cuts are 2.5 times larger than the fall in illegal crossings

• Around 72 per cent of the total drop is from legal routes

• H-1B visa issuances down about 25 per cent

• Petitions for overseas workers fell by up to 87 per cent after fee change

• Student visas dropped by about 40 per cent

• Spouse and fiancé visas down roughly 65 per cent

• Asylum admissions fell by 99.9 per cent

• Refugee admissions declined by about 90 per cent