Centre awaits IMD's June-end El Nino projection to shape kharif strategy

Agriculture Secretary Atish Chandra on Wednesday said the ministry is awaiting the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) forecast by the end of this month to get a clearer picture on the El Nino timeline before deciding on concrete steps to mitigate the likely impact on kharif crops.

"The prediction on when El Nino will set in is still to come. By the end of this month, IMD will come out with the forecast, and then the picture will be clearer. We will then be in the thick of the kharif sowing season and will know how it is going to pan out," Chandra told PTI in an interview.

 

While there have been broad forecasts of El Nino setting in around November, IMD is seeking greater certainty before firming up its assessment.

A key variable being tracked is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) a climate pattern characterised by irregular sea surface temperature oscillations in the Indian Ocean.

After remaining positive in May, the IOD has turned neutral in June.

"Whether it will remain neutral or change is something we are watching. IMD is still hopeful that there will be some development that will negate the El Nino effect," Chandra said.

A positive IOD typically counters El Nino, while a neutral or negative IOD allows it to exert greater influence on the monsoon.

El Nino is a climate phenomenon historically associated with weaker monsoons and increased rainfall.

IMD has forecast the southwest monsoon during the June-September period at around 90 per cent of the long-period average, signalling a below-normal season.

MONSOON PROGRESS DELAYED

IMD has been issuing monthly forecasts, and Chandra noted that much of what was predicted for June has been playing out.

The monsoon is currently running four to five days behind schedule, with a western disturbance identified as the primary factor obstructing further advancement. Low-pressure formation over West Bengal, however, is aiding the monsoon progress from the east, even as the southern arm, which was expected to advance further into Maharashtra, continues to lag.

Barring Tamil Nadu, which receives the bulk of its rainfall from the retreating monsoon, states where the monsoon has arrived have recorded good rainfall, he added.

RESILIENCE MEASURES IN PLACE

Chandra said El Nino has historically not severely affected India, with 2014-15 being the notable exception, and even then, agricultural production held up. Advances in climate-resilient seed varieties have since strengthened the sector's adaptive capacity, he said.

On the water management front, the government has been focusing on micro-irrigation infrastructure. Under the Amrit Sarovar scheme, 75,000 ponds have been rejuvenated to recharge groundwater levels, while over one lakh groundwater recharge structures have been revived.

"It is the rainfed areas, not irrigated ones, that are a concern for us. Reservoir levels are better compared to last year," he said.

326 HIGH-RISK DISTRICTS IDENTIFIED

Twelve states Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Odisha, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand and Maharashtra are predicted to be severely impacted by El Nino, given their predominantly rainfed agricultural base.

The ministry has identified 326 districts across these states where the risk is particularly high, and is updating detailed district-level action plans to mitigate adverse weather conditions.

District-level contingency plans are being revised in line with the severity of the weather forecasts, with active involvement from ICAR, CRIDA and state agricultural universities. The ministry's missions covering oilseeds, oil palm, pulses and cotton crops, largely cultivated in rainfed areas, are under intense review.

INPUT AVAILABILITY ADEQUATE

On the inputs front, Chandra said fertiliser supplies are adequate, though larger farmers had front-loaded purchases in March-April.

"Small farmers do not stock, they buy when required. Ground-level availability is much better than last year," he added.