India faces copper crunch from energy transition, infra growth: CSEP report

The report by the Centre for Social and Economic Progress warns that India's copper imports could rise sharply unless mining, processing, and recycling capacity is scaled up

India is at risk of a significant copper shortfall as domestic production struggles to keep pace with rising demand from the country’s energy transition, infrastructure expansion, and industrial growth, according to a new report by the Centre for Social and Economic Progress (CSEP).

 

“With global copper demand projected to reach up to 50 million tonnes by 2050, India’s import dependence is set to deepen unless domestic production and recycling capacity are urgently strengthened,” the report said.

 

Rising demand from energy transition

Copper is a critical component for India’s green transition, powering the electricity grid, electric vehicles, construction, and advanced manufacturing. The report, titled The Copper Report: Navigating Through the Demand and Supply Gap, projects that domestic demand in conventional sectors will reach 3.24 million tonnes by FY2030, while the energy transition sector alone will account for 274,000 tonnes.

   

“Despite significant reserves, India remains a net importer due to low exploration success, outdated technology, and limited private sector participation,” the report noted, citing the closure of the Tuticorin smelter, which reduced cathode output by 40 per cent and worsened import dependence.

 

Global supply chain vulnerabilities

Globally, the copper supply chain is highly concentrated, with China controlling more than 44 per cent of processing capacity. “Geopolitical risks, export restrictions, declining ore grades, and rising processing costs are creating vulnerabilities across the global copper supply chain,” the report warned. It cited Indonesia’s planned ban on copper concentrate exports as an example of supply-side risks.

 

Policy reforms and capacity building

The report urged India to accelerate exploration and extraction, pointing to large unexplored reserves. “Policy reforms are urgently needed to attract investment in exploration and mining activities to ensure a favourable return on investment,” it said.

 

It also called for strengthening midstream processing, diversifying revenue streams, and adopting global certifications such as the ‘Copper Mark’ to ensure responsible sourcing.

 

Boosting manufacturing and recycling

On downstream manufacturing, the report emphasised the need to expand domestic cathode production, review trade agreements, and pursue vertical integration. Recycling infrastructure, it said, must be formalised and regulated to improve safety, purity, and recovery from scrap and e-waste.

 

“Proactive engagement with copper-rich countries and leveraging multilateral frameworks such as the Mineral Security Partnership and Quad–ASEAN will be essential to secure a sustainable supply chain,” the report added.