India to rely on coal for next 25 years before sharp fall: NITI Aayog

India's coal consumption could more than double by mid-century before plunging sharply as the country ‍shifts toward cleaner energy, long-term ​projections published by government think-tank NITI Aayog show.

Under the current policy scenario - which assumes no major new decarbonisation measures - coal demand is expected to peak at 2.62 billion metric tons in 2050, more than double the current 1.26 billion.

Even by 2070, industrial demand is expected ​to keep coal consumption at a relatively high 1.80 billion tons, the report shows.

India is aiming for net-zero emissions by 2070, and under this scenario, coal consumption is expected to peak at 1.83 billion tons in 2050 before collapsing to just 161 million tons by 2070.

 

Virtually all remaining coal use in 2070 would be limited to hard-to-abate sectors such as steel and cement and would require carbon capture, utilisation and storage to meet emissions goals, the report said.

The world's second-largest coal consumer after China relies on the fuel for nearly ??three-quarters of its power generation, and aims to ramp up its coal ‌power capacity to 307 GW by 2034-35 ​from 212 GW now to meet forecast electricity demand.

The report warns that coal will remain essential in the near term to ??back up rising solar and wind power capacity and balance the grid.

In order ‍to shift away from coal, India will require large-scale battery storage, growth in nuclear energy, grid expansion, and lower costs of clean ‍technologies, ‌the report said.

Even ​if coal power plants continue to ‍operate, many of them will run less often and will be used ‍mainly ‍to handle peak ‌electricity demand or emergencies, the report added.