Silver price may remain volatile; buy the dips with target of ₹1,83,000/kg

Silver price outlook: The grey metal is expected to be highly volatile as risk assets fall, said Mirae Asset analyst. Dip buying is preferred over chasing the rally, he said

Silver price performance:

• On November 13, buoyed by inflation hedge buying and rate cut expectations, spot silver price rose to $54.39, close to its record-high level of $54.48 reached on October 17. The grey metal rallied sharply along with gold on November 12 as the US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the President Trump’s plan to send tariff rebate checks to American citizens is still under discussion and the plan would be for families making less than, say, $100,000. Around 59% of U.S. households earn less than $100,000 a year, according to U.S. Census Bureau data for last year. 
• Silver surged 4% on Wednesday and extended its rally on Thursday before coming off due to firmer US yields and uncertainty over rate cuts and US data releases. 
• At the time of writing this article, the grey metal was changing hands at $53.17, up around 0.20% for the day, while the MCX December Silver contract at Rs 162,500 was up 0.24%. 
• In the week ending November 7, spot silver was down nearly 0.75% to $48.32.

US Government shutdown ends:

• Record US government shutdown ended after 43 days as the US President Trump signed legislation which will enable the US Government to resume normal operations and Federal workers are expected to be back on their jobs starting November 13, though full restart may take weeks/days. 
• The House voted 222-209 to pass interim funding through Jan. 30. 
• Congress will decide in December whether to extend Covid-19 pandemic-era tax credits that make Affordable Care Act (ACA) plans more affordable. In case the credits aren't extended, they'll expire at the end of 2025. 
• Congressional Budget Office estimates that a six-week government shutdown would reduce real GDP growth in Q4 by 1.5%, though this loss may reverse in H1 2026 due to the impact of ‘One Big Beautiful Bill Act’ (OBBBA) signed by the President Trump as new tax cuts take effect.

Data roundup:

• White National Economic Director Kevin Hassett said that October job report will not include unemployment rate. He added that household survey will not be released either as some of the surveys were never actually completed. 
• October CPI report will not be released. 
• However, September data including nonfarm payroll, retail sales and personal income are likely to be released in the next few weeks along with Q3 GDP some of the October data. Q3 US GDP is expected to show strong growth in the tune of 3-4% annualized growth rate. 
• Lack of October CPI report means that the US Federal Reserve's job will become challenging when it meets on December 17-18 to decide on its monetary policy. 
• China's M1 money growth slowed to an annual pace of 6.2% om October from 7.2% in September, though it is still elevated. China’s credit expansion was the weakest in more than a year due to slower government bond sales and sluggish borrowing demand. Aggregate financing increased 815 billion yuan, the lowest level since July 2024, lagged the 1.2 trillion-yuan forecast by a wide margin.  
• The UK economy in 3Q grew at annualized rate of 0.1% Vs the forecast of 0.2%, though a rebound is possible in Q4.

Fedspeak:

• The Fed Governor Miran once again called the Fed's policy to be too restrictive and he cautioned Fed not to take inflation data on face value. He added that the Fed should cut rate by minimum 25 bps in December. 
• Susan Collins, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Raphael Bostic, Atlanta Fed President Raphael, opposed rate cut in December due to resilient economy and elevated inflation. 
• Bostic will step down as president of the Federal Reserve of Atlanta next year, which will give the Trump's Administration to increase its influence at the Fed. It is to be noted that the presidents of the 12 regional Fed Banks are up for reappointment in Marach 2026 as a part of the process that happens every five years.

Dollar Index and yields:

• The US Dollar Index fell nearly 0.45% to 99.07. 
• US yields reversed their Wednesday’s decline on hawkish Fedspeak and data uncertainty. 
• Ten-year US yields at the time of writing this article were hovering around 4.10%, up nearly 0.7% for the day, while 2-year yields at 3.58% were up nearly 0.6%.

Fed rate cut probability:

• The December Fed rate cut probability fell from 63% on November 12 to 47% on November 13.

Silver ETFs and COMEX Inventory:

• As of November 12, total known silver global silver ETF holdings stood at 813.57 MOz, down nearly 2.6% from the cycle peak of 836 MOz noted on October 21. 
• Despite recent outflows, global silver ETF holdings are at nearly 3-year high and up 13.86% YTD. 
• Total eligible COMEX silver stood at 322.08 MOz as of November 12, down by 5.84% (620 tons) from the cycle peak of 342 MOz as some metal has been shipped back from New York to London due to high London prices on a tight market.

Commodities fund flows:

• Even ex-precious metals commodities inflows are accelerating as inflation concerns rise. Bloomberg Commodities Index is up nearly 12% YTD.

Silver price outlook:

• Trump’s rebate pay check idea does lacks conviction as Tariff numbers and rebate payment numbers do not add up. Even 60% Americans receiving rebate would wipe out the entire tariff collection. 
• ETF outflows, rate cut uncertainty and caution before data releases may lead to profit booking. 
• The grey metal is expected to be highly volatile as risk assets fall. 
• Dip buying is preferred over chasing the rally. 
• Support is at $52.30 (₹160,000)/$51.70 (₹158,000)/$51 (Rs 156,000), while resistance is at $54.50/$55. A decisive breach of resistance at $55 (₹168,000) can take the metal to $58 (₹177,000)/$60 (₹183,000).

  =============  Disclaimer: Praveen Singh is the head - currencies and commodities at Mirae Asset Sharekhan. Views expressed are his own.