$1 mn Bitcoin is possible, says Bitwise CIO Matthew Hougan; here's the math

Bitcoin price prediction: Hougan argues that Bitcoin should be analysed as an emerging store-of-value asset similar to gold rather than purely as a speculative investment

Amid rising volatility in cryptocurrency markets, Matthew Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, believes Bitcoin could eventually climb to $1 million per coin if the global store-of-value market continues to expand.

 

The view comes even as Bitcoin has corrected sharply from its all-time high of $126,198 to about $69,557, a decline of roughly 45 per cent.

 

Hougan argues that Bitcoin should be analysed as an emerging store-of-value asset similar to gold rather than purely as a speculative investment.

 

“When I joined crypto full-time in 2018, I used to hear people say that and laugh. At the time, bitcoin was around $4,000, and $1 million sounded absurd even to me,” said Hougan.

 

 

Over time, however, he believes that earlier estimates underestimated Bitcoin’s potential because they assumed that the store-of-value market is fixed.

 

“I think of bitcoin as an emerging store-of-value asset. It serves a purpose similar to gold, allowing people to hold wealth outside the traditional fiat and banking system, but in a digital form,” he said. “It is more volatile and less established than gold, but it is increasingly competing for the same market.” 

 

According to Hougan, estimating Bitcoin’s potential value involves three factors. These include the total size of the store-of-value market, Bitcoin’s share of that market, and the cryptocurrency’s fixed maximum supply of 21 million coins.

 

Currently, the global store-of-value market is valued at just under $38 trillion, with gold accounting for roughly $36 trillion and Bitcoin about $1.4 trillion. On that basis, Bitcoin represents slightly under 4 per cent of the market.

 

“This is why $1 million per bitcoin sounds unreasonable to many,” Hougan said, adding that if the market remained the same size, Bitcoin would need to capture more than 50 per cent of the store-of-value market to reach that price level.

 

However, he said the key factor often overlooked is the growth of the overall market itself. 

JUST IN: $15 billion asset manager Bitwise publishes report titled "How Bitcoin Gets to $1 Million" ????  "...the global “store of value” market will be ~$121 trillion in 10 years...bitcoin only needs to take 17% of the market to be worth $1 million a coin." ???? pic.twitter.com/xETtCf9SFx

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) March 10, 2026

 

Hougan noted that the gold market has expanded sharply over the past two decades. When the first gold exchange-traded fund launched in the United States in 2004, the total gold market was worth about $2.5 trillion. Today it has grown to nearly $40 trillion, implying a compound annual growth rate of about 13 per cent.

 

“The mistake people make when evaluating bitcoin’s potential is ignoring this growth,” Hougan said.

 

If the store-of-value market continues expanding at a similar pace, it could reach roughly $121 trillion over the next decade. In that scenario, Bitcoin would only need to capture around 17 per cent of the market to reach $1 million per coin, given its fixed supply. 

 

Hougan said such a shift is plausible as institutional adoption of Bitcoin continues to increase.

 

“A few years ago, there were no US bitcoin ETFs and few institutional holders, and bitcoin was considered too volatile to warrant anything above a 1 per cent allocation,” he said. “Now bitcoin ETFs have proven to be the fastest-growing ETFs of all time, bitcoin is owned by everyone from the Harvard endowment to the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund, and many professional investors are considering 5 per cent allocations.”

 

Still, Hougan acknowledged that risks remain.

 

He said the store-of-value market may not grow at the same pace seen over the past two decades, particularly if macroeconomic conditions change or gold prices decline. Another possibility is that Bitcoin may fail to gain further market share.

 

At the same time, Hougan suggested the projections could even prove conservative if concerns around inflation, government debt and currency debasement intensify. 

 

“As I see it, the base case that the store-of-value market will continue to grow as it has, and bitcoin will continue to gain market share as it has, leads you to much higher prices than we have today,” he said.  =========================================================================================== 

(Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by the analyst in this article are his own and not those of the website or its management. Business Standard advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.)