FIIs, DIIs, Retail: Find out who holds most bullish, bearish bets in F&O

NSE derivatives data shows that FIIs are least bearish since December 13; DIIs most bullish in more than a year, while retail investors have turned cautious.

The Nifty ended the March series with a gain of 4.6 per cent or 1,047 points at 23,592. Whereas, the Bank Nifty and the MidCap Nifty ended with a gain of 5.8 per cent and 5.1 per cent, respectively; thanks largely to a sharp pullback in the latter half of the month.  Amid the market rally, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) seemed to have covered substantial short bets in index futures. The FIIs long-short ratio in index futures now stands at 0.66 - its highest point since December 13, 2024. This ratio implies that FIIs roughly hold 3 short positions across index futures for every 2 long bets.  In comparison, at the start of the March series FIIs long-short ratio stood at the lowest point at 0.19 - implying presence of more than 5 short bets in index futures for every long trade.  Data from the National Stock Exchange (NSE) futures & options (F&O) segment shows that FIIs hold little over 60,000 index contracts on the long side as against 90,600-odd contracts on the short side. Same time last month, FIIs held mere 41,780-odd contracts long, and over 215,300-odd contracts on the short side.  FIIs have been net buyers in the derivatives segment for the last 9 straight trading sessions, with net purchases totalling up to ₹17,433.78 crore. FIIs open interest (OI) in Nifty futures now stand at 80,047 contracts, Bank Nifty (44,757 contracts) and MidCap Nifty (24,443 contracts).  Meanwhile, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) are starting the April series with a long-short ratio of 2.44 - implying presence of nearly 5 bullish positions for every 3 bearish bets. This ratio at the start of the derivatives series is the highest for DIIs in more than a year.    In contrast, retail investors’ long-short ratio has dropped to 1.07 - its lowest point since October 4, 2024. Retail investors' now hold an equal quantity of long and short positions in index futures. Proprietary traders' long-short ratio has dropped to 0.42, and seems to be the most bearish among market participants at present.  Technically, the Nifty has garnered strong support at its 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), emphasizing a robust foothold for buyers, said Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Analyst at SAMCO Securities in a note.  Additionally, the momentum indicator RSI (Relative Strength Index) remains perched above the 60-mark on the daily chart, while the Nifty continues to trade comfortably above key moving averages, indicating that pullbacks can be seen as buying opportunities, the analyst said.  The derivatives market, however, depicts a slightly bearish bias, with Call writers holding the upper hand over Put writers, hinting at a dip in trader’s confidence.  Heavy Call writing at the 24,000 strike has established it as a formidable resistance, while substantial Put writing at the 23,500 level underlines strong support, reinforcing bullish sentiment at the lower end. The 23,500 – 23,300 range has transformed into a key accumulation zone, backed by aggressive Put additions, whereas the 23,700 – 24,000 territory faces notable resistance due to persistent Call writing, Dhupesh explained in the note.  Additionally, the Put-Call Ratio (PCR) climbed from 0.81 to 0.86, reflecting cautious positioning among traders. With the Max Pain level stationed at 23,500, bulls continue to absorb selling pressure, setting the stage for a potential continuation of the upward trajectory, the note added.  Among individual stocks, Bajaj Finserv, Paytm, Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL), Persistent Systems, Jubilant Foodworks, Ambuja Cements, Trent and Bank of Baroda have seen consistent buying interest in the last 4 trading sessions. On the other hand, Zomato, Vodafone Idea, Sona BLW Precision, Dr. Reddy's, Indian Hotels and Lupin saw a selling bias.