ITC Q3 preview: Profit may rise 2% YoY; FMCG biz to post healthy growth

ITC Q3 results preview: Brokerages tracked by Business Standard estimate ITC's net profit to average ₹5,175.85 crore, compared to ₹4,893.4 crore a year ago, up 1.6 per cent Y-o-Y

ITC Q3 results preview: Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), ITC is slated to release its December quarter (Q3FY26) results on Thursday, January 29, 2026.

 

Brokerages tracked by Business Standard estimate ITC's net profit to average ₹5,175.85 crore, compared to ₹4,893.4 crore a year ago, up 1.6 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y). On a quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) basis, the profit after tax (PAT) is expected to rise 6 per cent from ₹5,091.7 crore in Q2FY26. 

 

The company's revenue for the quarter under review is expected to climb 10 per cent in Q3FY26, on average, to ₹18,716.48 crore as compared to ₹17,052.8 crore a year ago. Sequentially, the revenue is poised to rise 4 per cent from ₹18,021.3 crore in Q2FY26.

 

How will ITC perform in Q3FY26?

Kotak Institutional Equities: 

Cigarette: Analysts expect cigarette volume/gross sales growth to be steady and resilient at 6 per cent/6.75 per cent Y-o-Y, as compared to 6 per cent/6.7 per cent in Q2FY26. 

 

The segment's Earnings before interest and tax (Ebit) growth is estimated at 5 per cent Y-o-Y, with margin declining 100/60 bps Y-o-Y/Q-o-Q due to consumption of high-cost leaf tobacco and other inputs. Leaf tobacco prices have moderated in recent quarters, but benefits will be accrued fully from Q4 onwards.

 

FMCG: The FMCG segment's revenue is anticipated to grow 9 per cent Y-o-Y, factoring in some unwind of transitory goods and services tax (GST)-led impact. Ebit margin is expected at 7.5 per cent, up 165 basis points (bps) Y-o-Y, led by stable raw material prices, calibrated pricing interventions, portfolio premiumisation, and focused cost management.

 

Agriculture: Agri business growth/Ebit margin is expected at 15 per cent/5.1 per cent Y-o-Y. 

 

Paperboards: The segment is expected to grow at 7 per cent Y-o-Y amid tough operating conditions (influx of low-priced supplies into global markets, including India, elevated domestic wood prices, and subdued realizations), and Ebit margin is estimated at 9.25 per cent, as against 8.6 per cent in Q2FY26. ITC's like-for-like (LFL) gross sales/Ebitda growth is expected to be 8.4 per cent/6.7 per cent Y-o-Y.  ALSO READ | Maruti Suzuki Q3 preview: What to expect from India's largest carmaker

Motilal Oswal Financial Services: 

Cigarette: The cigarette business is expected to show stable volumes and pricing, with the portfolio continuing to grow, aided by improvements in the product mix. Analysts anticipate 6 per cent volume growth and 7 per cent revenue growth in Q3. Ebit is expected to grow 6 per cent Y-o-Y, though margins may contract by 30 bps due to rising leaf tobacco prices.

 

FMCG: FMCG business expected to post healthy growth. The brokerage expects 9 per cent revenue growth to ₹20,710 crore in Q3FY26 and Ebit growth of 38 per cent, with a 160 bps margin expansion. 

 

Agri: The agriculture segment is likely to perform well during the quarter with revenue growth of 20 per cent.  In the 

 

Paperboards: In the paper segment, sequential improvement is forecasted due to an increase in paper prices. The segment's revenue is estimated to grow 7 per cent and Ebit 5 per cent. 

Emkay Global Financial Services: 

Cigarette: Analysts expect the cigarettes business to see 5 per cent volume growth, amid a better demand setting. Price growth is likely to be 1 per cent, aided by the mix. A competitive setting would be key, where market share position is key. Cigarettes’ Ebit margin is likely to see a sequential slide to 69.8 per cent of net sales, down by 90 bps Q-o-Q, as the high-cost inventory enters the base. On Y-o-Y basis, Ebit margin is anticipated to contract 150bps. A low-cost leaf tobacco price is forecasted to benefit flow from the next quarter.  

 

FMCG: FMCG businesses are likely to see a high single-digit revenue growth, aided by the inorganic business of 24 Mantra. Additionally, given the high share of foods, the company will clock better growth in the foods portfolio, in our view. Segment Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) margin is likely to see a sequential recovery of 70 bps Y-o-Y to 10.7 per cent. On a low base, healthy 35 per cent Ebitda growth is anticipated.    ALSO READ | L&T Q3 preview: Analysts eye up to 35% jump in profit; check key factors 

Agri: Agriculture revenue is likely to see only a mid-single-digit growth, likely dragged by delayed shipments. Ebitda margin is likely to be stable at 12 per cent.  

 

Paperboards: The segment is expected to grow in the mid-single-digit range. The brokerage believes segment margin would see moderate expansion of 20 bps Y-o-Y to 9.8 per cent. The ‘Minimum Import Price’ 

mechanism has still not come into effect, given the existing imported inventory in the country. Analysts see the benefits being visible from Q4. Wood prices are likely to be stable Q-o-Q; this does not match the expectations of better availability at the start of the quarter. Wood availability was disrupted in Q3 due to the cyclone in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.  

 

Overall, the brokerage sees 4 per cent growth in revenue, while Ebitda growth is likely to be 7 per cent and earnings growth at 6 per cent.

PL Capital:

The brokerage anticipates cigarette volume growth of 6 per cent in Q3FY26 and expects delayed margin recovery across businesses.  

 

Disclaimer: View and outlook shared belong to the respective brokerages/analysts and are not endorsed by Business Standard. Readers' discretion is advised.