Stock Markets Today, January 13, 2025: Inflation data, weak global cues and uncertainty surrounding December quarter (Q3FY25) results are expected to dominate market sentiment and influence the performance of benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty.
At 6:32 AM, GIFT Nifty futures indicate a gap-down opening for the markets, trading 160 points lower at 23,341.
In the previous trading session, the Sensex declined 241.30 points (0.31 per cent) to close at 77,378.91. Similarly, the Nifty50 ended 95 points (0.40 per cent) lower at 23,431.50.
Domestic cues
December inflation figures will be released today. Consumer price inflation in India likely fell to 5.3 per cent in December on moderating food price rises, a Reuters poll of economists showed, bolstering expectations for an interest rate cut by the central bank next month amid slowing economic growth. Meanwhile, the WPI inflation will be released tomorrow, January 14, 2025.
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Sanjay Malhotra, who took charge as the governor of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in December, will have his first interaction with the managing directors (MDs) and chief executive officers (CEOs) of public-sector banks (PSBs) and private lenders on Thursday, ahead of the February monetary policy review.
Following a six-year peak in 2023, corporate spending on share buybacks saw a major decline in 2024 due to the government’s decision to shift the tax burden from companies to investors. Last year, 48 companies repurchased shares worth Rs 13,423 crore, a sharp drop from the ₹48,079 crore spent by the same number of companies in 2023.
Commercial paper (CP) rates have risen by 10–13 basis points (bps) across tenures in January, reflecting tightening liquidity in the market. The increase suggests borrowers are encountering higher costs to secure short-term funds amid constrained liquidity.
The domestic fund of funds (FoFs) segment, which had faced challenges after losing indexation benefits in April 2023, has begun to recover. Investor interest in the sector has been revitalised following tax adjustments introduced in the 2024 Budget.
Other market triggers
Q3 results
HCL Technologies, Delta Corp, Angel One, Anand Rathi, Den Networks and Himadri Speciality Chemical among others will release their Q3 results.
FII, DII
FIIs sold shares worth Rs 2,254.69 crore on January 10, while DIIs bought shares worth 3,961.92 crore.
IPO market
Standard Glass IPO (Mainline) and Indobell Insulation IPO (SME) will list on the bourses, while Laxmi Dental IPO (Mainline) will open for subscription.
Barflex Polyfilms IPO (SME) and Sat Kartar IPO (SME) will enter Day 2 of their subscriptions.
Global cues
Asia-Pacific markets began the week on a weaker note, with Friday's robust US jobs report dampening hopes for early interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
ASX 200 declined 0.84 per cent, while Kospi fell 0.4 per cent in early trade. Markets in Japan were closed for a holiday.
China will release its December trade data later today. Meanwhile, investors remain cautious about Chinese bond yields after the central bank halted government bond purchases last Friday, causing the 10-year bond yield to hit a record low. The onshore yuan fell to a 16-month low against the dollar last week, with the offshore yuan continuing its decline since September. On Friday, China’s CSI 300 index closed at its lowest level since September 2024.
Key economic updates later this week include US inflation on Wednesday, the Bank of Korea’s meeting on Thursday and Australia’s December unemployment rate, followed by China’s Q4 GDP, retail sales, and industrial output data on Friday.
In the US, equity markets fell sharply on Friday following a strong jobs report. The Dow Jones dropped 1.63 per cent, the S&P 500 lost 1.54 per cent, and the Nasdaq declined 1.63 per cent.
December payrolls surged 256,000, surpassing expectations of 155,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1 per cent, beating projections of 4.2 per cent. Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year note reaching its highest level since late 2023.
Commodity market
Oil prices rallied on Friday after the US Treasury Department imposed extensive sanctions on Russia's oil sector. Brent crude rose $2.84 (3.69 per cent) to $79.76 per barrel, while US crude gained $2.65 (3.58 per cent) to settle at $76.57, marking the highest levels since October.
Gold prices rebounded, supported by safe-haven demand amid policy uncertainty and the Federal Reserve's outlook for rate cuts. Spot gold rose 0.5 per cent to $2,688.40 per ounce, and US gold futures gained 1 per cent to $2,717.60.
Here's how analysts are assessing today's (January 13) trading session:
Amol Athawale, VP of technical research at Kotak Securities
For short-term traders, 23,600/77,800 would be the key level to watch. Above this level, the pullback move could continue till 23,800/78,500. Further upside may also persist, potentially pushing the market up to the 200-day SMA or 24,000/78,800. On the flip side, if the market falls below 23,350/77,100, selling pressure is likely to accelerate. Below which, the market could slip to the 23,250-23,100/76,800-76,500 range.
Rupak De, senior technical analyst at LKP Securities
Sentiment stays subdued in the short-term, with the potential for a decline toward 23,300 or 23,000. On the upside, resistance is observed at 23,550–23,600.