MCX gets target price hike from ICICI Securities on strong volume momentum

ICICI Securities maintained its 'Add' rating on MCX and upped the target to ₹12,500 from ₹10,000 earlier, an upside potential of 12 per cent from Wednesday's close

ICICI Securities has raised its target price on Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd. (MCX), citing strong volume momentum driven by elevated commodity market volatility and sustained high trading activity across futures and options.

 

The brokerage, in a report on December 31, maintained its 'Add' rating and upped the target to ₹12,500 from ₹10,000 earlier, an upside potential of 12 per cent from Wednesday's close. 

 

The brokerage said MCX is benefiting from heightened commodity volatility, which has translated into sharp growth in volumes during the third quarter of the financial year 2026 (FY26) and the first nine months of the year. On the back of this momentum, ICICI Securities expects profit after tax to nearly double on a quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) basis in the third quarter of FY26.

 

 

According to the report, capital-efficient product structures, the growing role of digital brokers and increasing market penetration remain key long-term volume drivers. However, commodity volatility is currently the dominant factor supporting volumes, a trend also visible across global commodity exchanges.  CATCH STOCK MARKET UPDATES TODAY LIVE 

Despite the strong performance, ICICI Securities remains cautious about assuming sustained volume growth. It estimates the futures average daily traded value at about ₹70,000 crore and options premium average daily traded value at ₹70,00 crore in FY27, rising to ₹83,000 crore and ₹8,200 crore, respectively, in FY28. These estimates compare with futures average daily traded value of ₹92,800 crore and options premium average daily traded value of ₹7800 crore recorded in December 2025.

 

Options volumes have also remained strong, with the premium average daily traded value at ₹6500 crore in November 2025 and ₹7,800 crore in December 2025 on a month-to-date basis.

 

ICICI Securities maintained an Add rating on the stock, valuing MCX at 40 times its estimated FY28 core earnings per share of ₹305, excluding investment income net of taxes, and adding free cash of ₹294 per share. The brokerage highlighted potential upside risks from sustained traction in commodity options trading and the introduction of new products, while downside risks include a decline in volatility-led volumes, software-related issues during volume ramp-up and adverse regulatory changes.  ALSO READ | Shriram Finance, IIFL, L&T Finance hit new highs; rally upto 19% in 1 month 

Mongan Stanley, in a report on December 30, upgraded the rating to 'Equal-weight' and said average daily transaction revenue has surged over the past three months, driven by sharp price action in commodities, a trend that does not appear to be easing. The brokerage said it has materially raised its estimates and sees potential upside risks if transaction volumes, which remain volatile, are sustained.

 

Shares of MCX have risen for the fourth straight month in December, rising 50 per cent in the process. The counter has risen 78 per cent in the last 12 months, compared to a 10.5 per cent advance in the benchmark Nifty 50. MCX has a total market capitalisation of ₹56,015.84 crore. 

 

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