Nifty50 outlook: Here's why 25,817 is key level to watch out for on charts

The Nifty is seen quoting below its short-term moving averages, and today testing the key supertrend line support, shows the daily charts. Here are the key levels for the index.

The NSE Nifty 50 index has shed 2.1 per cent or 555 points to a low of 25,818 hit in intra-day trade on Friday from its record high of 26,373 registered five trading sessions back on January 5, 2025.  The recent sell-off in the market has been owing to he US tariff related uncertainties; mainly the threat of potential up to 500 per cent after the US President Donald Trump approved the Russia Sanctioning Act.  In the process, the Nifty has dropped below both its short-term moving averages - the 20-day moving average (20-DMA) and the 50-DMA, shows the daily chart.  The chart below shows that the Nifty 20-DMA stands at 26,043 and the 50-DMA at 25,966. The index is seen quoting below both the short-term averages for the second straight day - a first since October 3, 2025. 

 

 

  The Nifty chart also highlights the presence of a key supertrend line support, which stands at 25,817 - a key short-term trend indicator to watch out for, which the index has been holding since the breakout on October 10, 2025.  Technically, the supertrend line indicator helps in determining the market direction. In general, prices holding above the supertrend indicator are considered as a positive (bullish) trend and vice versa.  Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities highlights that the Nifty had formed a long bear candle on the daily chart that has moved below the immediate support of around 26,100-26,000 levels, which is a sign of further weakness.  "The short-term trend of Nifty is weak. A decisive breakdown of the support indicates a short-term reversal of trend on the downside. Next crucial lower supports to be watched around 25,700. Immediate resistance is placed at 26,000," said Nagaraj Shetti in a note.  However, in case, the Nifty is able to hold above the supertrend line, a short-term pullback cannot be ruled out.  ALSO READ | Nifty below 26,000: Key levels to watch and trading strategy ahead  Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited says tonight the focus will be on the US Supreme Court verdict on the Trump tariffs. Indian markets can rally sharply from here in case the verdict goes against Trump, says the analyst.  "The market will be focused on the verdict expected today from the US Supreme Court on the legality of Trump tariffs. There is a high probability of the verdict going against Trump," says Dr. VK Vijayakumar.  The analyst explains the detailed order would be significant; that is, whether it would be a partial striking down of the tariffs or completely declaring the tariffs illegal. If the Supreme Court declares Trump tariffs illegal, there would be a rally in India since India has been the worst affected by the 50 per cent tariffs, Vijayakumar said.