Reliance slips 3%, hits 3-mth low post Q3 show; why is the Street nervous?

Thus far in the month of January, RIL's market price declined by 9.5 per cent, while, it has corrected 12 per cent from its all-time high level of ₹1,611.20 touched on January 5, 2026.

Reliance Industries share price today

 

Share price of Reliance Industries (RIL) hit a three-month low at ₹1,420, as the stock slipped 3 per cent on the BSE in Monday’s intra-day trade after the company posted muted earnings in Q3. Reliance's consolidated EBITDA was flat sequentially, below the analysts estimates, hurt by a weaker performance of Reliance Retail.

 

The stock price of the country’s most-valued company in terms of market capitalisation was quoting at its lowest level since October 17, 2025. Thus far in the month of January, RIL’s market price has declined by 9.5 per cent. It has corrected 12 per cent from its all-time high level of ₹1,611.20 touched on January 5, 2026.

 

 

At 09:29 AM; RIL quoted 1.9 per cent lower at ₹1,429.95, as compared to 0.49 per cent decline in the BSE Sensex.

 

What's making the Street nervous?

 

For the October to December 2025 quarter (Q3FY26), RIL’s reported consolidated EBITDA stood at ₹50,932 crore, up 1.1 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and up 6.1 per cent year-on-year (YoY), due to retail gross revenue growth being muted at 8.1 per cent YoY and EBITDA growing only 1.3 per cent YoY to ₹6,915 crore. However, the management downplayed the near-term growth weakness and said it was confident of double-digit retail revenue growth.

 

Further, Digital EBITDA was up 2.3 per cent QoQ and up 16.4 per cent YoY at ₹19,303 crore, largely in-line on robust subs addition (of 8.9 million), slightly better average revenue per user or ARPU (at ₹213.7) and continued addition of strong home broadband subs led by fixed wireless access (FWA). Q3 earnings report

 

The management didn’t comment on the tariff hike timeline as it is satisfied with improvement in customer traction; it added that the Jio IPO was on track, unless the final finance ministry notification on large IPO minimum float norms is significantly delayed, analysts at JM Financial Institutional Securities said.

 

The brokerage firm has reiterated BUY (revised target price of ₹1,730) due to comfortable valuations after the recent correction, and as RIL’s industry leading capabilities across businesses are likely to drive robust 14-16 per cent EPS compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next 3-5 years, driven by both consumer businesses.

 

Most importantly, the management has indicated that it does not see an immediate need for tariff hikes in mobile services. This implies that mix improvement along with broadband will be key drivers in near terms for ARPU growth, which will be modest for Jio as well as industry as a whole, ICICI Securities said in a note.  ALSO READ | Jio listing, retail growth key near-term triggers for Reliance industries 

Capex of ₹33,800 crore was down 15 per cent QoQ, up 9 per cent for 9MFY26. However, the capex is helping bolster New Energy, petchem and AI-related plans, with clarity emerging on timelines and milestones for each of the segments. Oil to Chemical (OTC) prospects remain resilient, with strong domestic demand and closures of high-cost units globally for refining; alongside petchem to support demand-supply balance over the medium term, the brokerage firm said. It maintains ‘BUY; rating on the stock with a revised target price of ₹1,740.

 

Analysts at Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) cut FY26-28E EBITDA by 1-2 per cent, largely driven by cuts in Reliance Retail, while cut FY26-28E attributable profit after tax (PAT) by 0-3 per cent due to higher interest cost in RJio, along with the cuts in Reliance Retail earnings.

 

The brokerage firm expects RJio to remain the biggest growth driver with 18 per cent EBITDA CAGR over FY25-28E, driven by tariff hikes (15 per cent from July 2026), market share gains in wireless, and continued ramp-up of the Homes and Enterprise offerings.

 

Overall, MOFSL built in a CAGR of 10 per cent/7 per cent in RIL’s consolidated EBITDA/PAT over FY25-28, largely driven by robust growth in digital services (79 per cent contribution to incremental EBITDA accretion over FY25-28E). The brokerage firm reiterated its 'BUY' rating with a revised target price of ₹1,750 (earlier ₹1,790).  ==============================  Disclaimer: View and outlook shared on the stock belong to the respective brokerages and are not endorsed by Business Standard. Readers discretion is advised.