Resilient housing demand keeps top realty developers on FY26 track: Nomura

Nomura on India Real Estate: India’s listed real estate developers are set to deliver a third straight quarter of resilient pre-sales in Q3FY26, underscoring the underlying strength of housing demand despite pressure on stock prices amid subdued equity markets, according to a Nomura preview note. 

 

The Japan-based brokerage believes that demand for branded residential projects remains healthy across cities and price points, with many leading developers constrained more by supply and approvals than by buyer appetite.

 

Nomura maintains a constructive view on the sector, reiterating Prestige Estates as its top pick, while also favouring Lodha Developers and Aditya Birla Real Estate (ABREL). The brokerage expects several large developers to remain broadly on course to meet their full-year FY26 pre-sales guidance.

 

Demand resilient, supply the key bottleneck

Nomura highlights that developers are on track for a third consecutive quarter of steady sales momentum, driven largely by sustained interest in branded residential offerings. Nomura notes that the sector’s recent share price weakness reflects broader market conditions rather than any deterioration in fundamentals. In fact, sales from both new launches and existing inventory have largely held up compared with Q2FY26.

 

However, the pace of launches has been uneven, analysts said. While players such as Sobha undertook multiple launches during the quarter, others like DLF and Oberoi Realty did not introduce new projects. Nomura flags delays in regulatory approvals as a potential short-term dampener, citing examples where launches were pushed into subsequent quarters, thereby shifting revenue recognition timelines rather than destroying demand.  ALSO READ | Shriram Finance, IIFL, L&T Finance hit new highs; rally upto 19% in 1 month

New launches perform across price points

A key takeaway from the quarter is the broad-based nature of demand. Nomura points out that new projects have seen healthy traction across luxury, premium and mid-income segments, and in multiple geographies .

 

At the top end, super-luxury projects priced between ₹4-17 crore per unit, such as Godrej Properties’ Trilogy in Mumbai and Brigade’s Gateway Phase 2 in Hyderabad, recorded encouraging responses. In the ₹3-3.5 crore range, developments like Sobha Magnus in Bengaluru and Birla Estates’ project in Gurugram attracted buyers, while more affordable offerings around ₹1.5 crore per unit, including Godrej Elaris and Birla Evam in Pune, also saw steady absorption.

 

Sales from existing inventory, meanwhile, were largely in line with the previous quarter for most developers, reinforcing Nomura’s view that end-user demand remains intact.

Developer-wise outlook: Leaders stand out

Among individual names, Nomura expects Lodha Developers to deliver its strongest-ever quarterly pre-sales at about ₹5,500 crore in Q3FY26, up 22 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y), supported by strong sustenance sales and new launches. While this is marginally below management’s indicated guidance, the brokerage attributes the gap mainly to timing issues around specific projects rather than weak demand.

 

Godrej Properties is projected to post robust growth, with estimated pre-sales of ₹7,600 crore, a 40 per cent jump Y-o-Y on a low base, aided by multiple launches across Mumbai, Bengaluru, Pune and plotted developments in other cities. There is potential upside if sales at its high-profile Worli project outperform expectations.

 

Contrastingly, DLF and Oberoi Realty are likely to see muted numbers due to the absence of major launches and a high base effect. ABREL stands out with an estimated 225 per cent Y-o-Y surge in pre-sales to ₹2,200 crore, supported by near sell-outs and a strong pipeline slated for Q4FY26. Prestige Estates is expected to clock pre-sales of around ₹4,000 crore, up 33 per cent Y-o-Y, with additional upside contingent on timely approvals for large upcoming projects.  ALSO READ | HDFC Securities trims Oil India target to ₹495; maintains 'Buy': Here's why

Outlook remains constructive

That said, Nomura’s analysis suggests that India’s residential real estate cycle remains structurally healthy, with demand holding firm across segments and cities. 

 

While near-term volatility in equity markets and approval-related delays may influence quarterly numbers, the brokerage believes the medium-term outlook for top branded developers remains robust, supported by disciplined balance sheets, strong brand recall and a visible launch pipeline.   

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