Nifty Outlook: Waiting for a rebound? Market experts reckon this

The NSE Nifty has declined over 3 per cent (800 points) from its record high of 26,373 hit on January 5, and is currently seen hovering around the 100-DMA. Here's what market experts have to say.

The Nifty is down over 3 per cent from its record high of 26,373 hit on January 5, 2026. In the process, the NSE benchmark index has dipped below its short-term moving averages - both the 20-day moving average (20-DMA) and the 50-DMA, and is seen testing the 100-DMA at 25,578 in recent trading sessions.  That apart, on Monday, the Nifty formed a bearish candle with the open and high nearly at the same level, reflecting sustained selling pressure through the session; and the index continues to trade below the Supertrend, highlighting continued short-term weakness, said Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities in a note. 

Here's look at the Nifty chart:

 

 

 

  The above Nifty daily chart shows that the index has been hovering around the orange line (100-DMA) for the last few sessions.  Mehra also flags that on the hourly chart too, the Nifty remains weak, with a sequence of lower-highs and lower-lows still intact. Although minor pullbacks have emerged near the 25,500 zone, the lack of follow-through suggests limited buying interest at current levels, the analyst noted.  Echoing a similar stance, Rajesh Bhosale, Equity Technical Analyst at Angel One believes that yesterday's intra-day recovery lacks conviction, and the 25,500 – 25,450 zone continues to remain a sacrosanct support for the bulls.  "A decisive break below this level could confirm a potential topping-out formation in the form of a "Double Top," which may drag the index towards the 200-DMA placed in the 25,200 – 25,000 zone," said Bhosale in a note.  ALSO READ | 70% of Nifty 500 stocks in red in Jan 2026: What's next for Indian markets?  The analyst cautions that as long as the Nifty fails to reclaim the short-term moving averages around 25,800 – 25,900, traders should avoid aggressive bets.  For traders to turn bullish, market experts reckon to keep an eye on 25,820 levels.  "On the upside, any recovery towards the 25,700 – 25,770 zone is likely to face resistance, and only a sustained move back above 25,820 would help ease the current corrective pressure and open the door for a more meaningful rebound," say analysts at SAMCO Securities. TRACK LIVE UPDATES  However, for a clear shift in sentiment, Nifty would need to reclaim and sustain above the 25,900 level, which currently appears challenging, said Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities.  From a derivatives standpoint, the analyst highlights that the options data continues to validate the cautious-to-negative bias.  "The highest Call open interest is concentrated at the 25,800 strike, where Call writers have accumulated a substantial 1.72 crore contracts, making it a formidable resistance zone for the index," Dhameja wrote.  On the downside, the 25,500 strike has emerged as the key Put base, with Put writers holding around 1.66 crore contracts, indicating that this zone is acting as an immediate support area. Put-Call Ratio (PCR) remains in negative territory at 0.73, reflecting a bearish skew in options positioning, the analyst said.  Disclaimer: The views expressed by the brokerage/ analyst in this article are their own and not those of the website or its management. Business Standard advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.