Uno Minda, Motherson Sumi, M&M: Top bets by Nuvama ahead of March'25 sales

March 2025 Auto Sales: As the financial year 2025 (FY25) draws to a close, domestic brokerage firm Nuvama has unveiled its top picks in the automobile sector ahead of the upcoming March 2025 auto sales data. The sales figures will be released on Tuesday, April 1, 2025.

 

Nuvama has picked stocks like Uno Minda, Motherson Sumi Wiring, Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M), and TVS Motor Company ahead of the key sales data. 

 

On the bourses, in the past month, TVS Motor Company has risen over 3 per cent, M&M (up 0.6 per cent), Motherson Sumi Wiring (up 13 per cent), and Uno Minda (up 12.9 per cent). In comparison, BSE Sensex has gained 3.5 per cent.

 

 

Analysts at Nuvama anticipate positive wholesale growth for tractors, two-wheelers (2Ws), and passenger vehicles (PVs) in March 2025, with a slight decline expected in commercial vehicles (CVs). 

 

Tractors are predicted to see double-digit growth, driven by favourable customer sentiment and a supportive base. The 2W and PV segments, analysts believe, are expected to register modest single-digit growth, despite subdued consumer sentiment, primarily due to inventory build-up ahead of the festive season (Gudi Padwa, Chaitra Navratri). Meanwhile, CV wholesales growth is likely to slow down with a marginal dip. 

 

“We remain constructive on the automotive sector and estimate tractors, SUVs and 2Ws would clock high single-digit growth over FY25–27E, outpacing CVs. Top picks include TVS Motor Company, M&M, Motherson Sumi Wiring, Uno Minda,” said Raghunandhan NL, Manav Shah and Rahul Kumar of Nuvama, in a note.  Read: Stock Market LIVE Updates

 

Given this, here’s the segment-wise expectations ahead of March auto sales data:

 

Tractors 

 

According to analysts at Nuvama, the tractor industry volumes are expected to grow in double digits, with an approximately 16 per cent Y-o-Y increase in the domestic market. 

 

The growth, analysts believe, is driven by positive customer sentiment, a favourable base, and inventory build-up at dealerships. 

 

Moreover, farmer sentiment remains optimistic due to expectations of a better Rabi output and favourable terms of trade. Thus, analysts forecast a 15 per cent Y-o-Y growth for M&M Farm and a 13 per cent increase for Escorts (including Kubota), with volumes reaching 30,000 and 11,200 units, respectively.

 

Two-wheelers (2Ws) 

 

The 2W industry, analysts at Nuvama said, is likely to see slightly positive growth, with volumes expected to rise about 3 per cent Y-o-Y in the domestic market, despite subdued customer sentiment. 

 

The growth, they believe, is supported by inventory build-up at dealerships. 

 

Exports, however, are expected to grow in double digits, driven by demand from Latin America and Africa. Considering these factors, Nuvama analysts estimate total volume growth of 22 per cent Y-o-Y for Eicher Motors-RE (to 92,100 units), 11 per cent for TVS Motor (to 395,000 units), 2 per cent for Bajaj Auto (to 375,000 units), and 1 per cent for Hero MotoCorp (to 495,000 units). 

Also Read: Stocks to Watch, March 27: Infosys, NBCC, Bharat Forge, Wipro, JSW Infra

 

Passenger vehicles (PVs)

 

The PV industry volumes are likely to grow slightly, with an approximately 3 per cent Y-o-Y increase in the domestic market, despite muted customer sentiment. 

 

This growth is aided by higher discounts and inventory build-up at dealerships, with OEMs having recently increased discounts and introduced price cuts to boost sales, analysts opined. 

 

Thus, they forecast total volume growth of 20 per cent Y-o-Y for M&M-Auto (which includes PV, CV, and 3W) to 82,000 units, and a 4 per cent growth for Maruti Suzuki to 195,000 units. In contrast, Hyundai Motor India is expected to see a 3 per cent decline to 63,500 units, and Tata Motors-PV is likely to witness a 2 per cent dip to 49,400 units.

 

Commercial vehicles (CVs)

 

In the CV industry, volumes are anticipated to be slightly negative, with about 1 per cent Y-o-Y decline in the domestic market, analysts at Nuvama said, in a note.

 

On a positive note, higher e-Way Bill generation compared to last year indicates better freight availability for transporters. 

 

However, selective financing by lenders and limited fleet utilisation, analysts highlighted, are restricting new vehicle purchases. 

 

Therefore, Nuvama analysts estimate a 3 per cent Y-o-Y growth for Eicher Motors-VECV (to 11,600 units), flat growth for Ashok Leyland (at 22,800 units), and a 2 per cent decline for Tata Motors-CV (to 41,600 units).