Mission Mausam boosts cyclone forecast accuracy in coastal states

Mission Mausam and upgraded weather monitoring systems have improved cyclone forecast accuracy and lead time, helping coastal states reduce disaster losses

The Mission Mausam initiative and a series of modernisation measures in weather monitoring have significantly improved the accuracy and lead time of cyclone and extreme rainfall forecasts for coastal states, including Odisha, helping authorities minimise loss of life and property during disasters.

 

Union Minister of State (Independent Charge) for Earth Sciences Jitendra Singh informed the Lok Sabha on Wednesday that the initiative, implemented since late 2024 by subsuming the earlier Atmosphere and Climate Research – Modelling Observing Systems and Services (ACROSS) scheme, has strengthened monitoring and early warning systems while enhancing the observational network and modelling capabilities of the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), the India Meteorological Department (IMD), and other associated institutions.

 

 

The minister cited a comparative analysis of operational cyclone forecast performance between 2016–2020 and 2021–2025, which shows notable gains in predicting cyclone track, landfall location, and intensity.

 

According to the analysis, the landfall point forecast error has reduced considerably. During 2021–25, the error for forecasts issued 24, 48, and 72 hours in advance stood at 19 km, 34.4 km, and 77.3 km, respectively, compared to 31.9 km, 61.5 km, and 91.9 km during 2016–20. This indicates an improvement of 35–45 per cent for the 24–48-hour lead period and about 20 per cent improvement for the 36–72-hour lead period.

 

Similarly, average cyclone track forecast errors also showed improvement. The error was 73 km, 116 km, and 168 km for forecasts issued 24, 48, and 72 hours ahead during 2021–25, compared to 77 km, 117 km, and 159 km during 2016–20. This reflects a 5 to 10 per cent improvement up to 48 hours.

 

The improvement has been more visible in cyclone intensity forecasts. The average absolute error in intensity prediction during 2021–25 was 5.3 knots, 7.5 knots, and 9.1 knots for the 24, 48, and 72-hour lead periods, respectively. The corresponding errors were 7.9 knots, 11.4 knots, and 14.1 knots, indicating a 35–45 per cent improvement up to 72 hours during 2016–20.

 

The data also suggested a significant increase in the lead time of accurate forecasts, which is critical for evacuation and disaster preparedness. The landfall forecast error of 34 km at a 48-hour lead time occurred during 2021–25 as against 32 km at a 24-hour lead time during 2016–20, implying an improvement of nearly 24 hours in lead time for a similar level of accuracy.

 

The improved forecasting capability has played a key role in reducing cyclone-related fatalities across the country. Since 2010, there has been a significant decline in deaths during cyclonic storms due to timely warnings issued by IMD and effective evacuation measures by state governments.

 

The minister informed that Cyclone Biparjoy (2023), which hit Gujarat, resulted in zero deaths, while Cyclone Michaung (2023) in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh caused 19 fatalities. Cyclone Dana in Odisha recorded zero deaths, Cyclone Fengal (2024) in Tamil Nadu claimed 10 lives, and Cyclone Montha (2025) in Andhra Pradesh resulted in eight fatalities.

 

“These numbers are significantly lower compared to the 1999 Odisha Super Cyclone, which caused thousands of deaths, highlighting the transformative role of modern forecasting systems and disaster preparedness,” Singh said in a written reply.

 

The IMD has also been strengthening meteorological infrastructure across the country, including in Odisha, through the installation and upgrading of observation systems such as Automatic Weather Stations (AWS), Automated Rain Gauges (ARG), High Wind Speed Recorders (HWSR), and Doppler Weather Radars (DWRs).

 

At present, Odisha has 39 manned surface meteorological observatories, 29 Automatic Weather Stations, 136 Automated Rain Gauge stations, and six High Wind Speed Recorders. Current Weather Observation Systems are operational at four airports in the state. The state is also equipped with two Doppler Weather Radars at Paradip and Gopalpur, both functioning round the clock.

 

The government has proposed additional infrastructure in Odisha to further strengthen forecasting capabilities under Mission Mausam.

 

“This includes two C-band Doppler Weather Radars at Sambalpur and Balasore by 2026, an X-band Doppler Weather Radar in Bhubaneswar, and an S-band Doppler Weather Radar at Puri. These new installations will significantly enhance cyclone monitoring, rainfall prediction and early warning capabilities, benefiting not only Odisha but also adjoining coastal regions of eastern India,” Singh added.