Page 8 - Crisil

Indian economy to grow at 6.7% between fiscals 2024 to 2031: CRISIL

The Indian economy is expected to grow at an average rate of 6.7 per cent per annum until the end of the decade, CRISIL said in its latest report. The economy will grow at this rate between the financial years 2024 to 2031, a notch above the pre-pandemic average of 6.6 per cent. According to CRISIL, the key contributor to this trend will be capital. This is a result of the investment-driven strategy of the government when the private sector was shy of making investments. The government increased capital expenditure significantly to support building expenditure and providing interest-free loans to states to bolster their own investment efforts, the report said. CRISIL said that after a robust 7.3 per cent growth this fiscal, there will be moderation to 6.4 per cent in the next financial year. There is also a need to monitor the impact of the escalation of the Middle East conflict on energy and logistics costs, it said. In India, the inflation level of 5.7 per cent in December 202

Interim Budget: 'Fiscally prudent, growth-promoting pronouncement'

The underlying nominal GDP growth assumption of 10.5 per cent for the Budget and tax collection estimates are realistic

Agricultural commodities may be significantly impacted by Red Sea crisis

The Red Sea crisis has led to a 122% rise in freight costs in the last few months, according to ICRA

Cement industry to add 150-160 million tonnes capacity by FY28: CRISIL

To cash in on rising demand from infrastructure and housing sectors, the cement industry is on course to add capacity by 150-160 million tonnes from FY25 to FY28, a report said on Tuesday. In the past five fiscals, the industry has added capacity by 119 million tonnes (MT) per annum to reach a total of 595 MT now, according to a Crisil Ratings report. The capacity addition is for the purpose of meeting the rising demand as well as to consolidate market share in a highly fragmented and competitive industry, the report added. Cement demand grew 8 per cent in fiscal 2022 and 12 per cent in FY23. As much as 70-75 MT capacity addition is expected to be commissioned in next fiscal, with 50-55 per cent concentrated in the eastern and central regions. Large players will account for 50-55 per cent of the planned capacity addition, the report said, adding, however, incremental supply and stiffer competition will cap price growth but benign cost will protect and aid margins. Robust demand i

Fall in prices of onion, tomato pushed cost of veg thali down 3% in Dec

On a year-on-year basis, however, the cost of veg thali continues to be higher than in December 2022

Higher domestic demand, exports to put pharma SMEs in pink of health

This augurs well for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), which have a 35-40 per cent share in industry revenue

Steel sector boom to continue in FY24 but moderate in FY25 : CRISIL

The Indian steel sector has enjoyed a multi-year demand surge which will continue in the current FY'24 but it is expected to moderate in the coming fiscal, global analytics company Crisil said. The sector has witnessed double digit demand growth rate of 11 to 13 per cent during three consecutive years and is likely to moderate to 3 to 5 per cent in FY'25, Miren Lodha, Director Research, Crisil Market Intelligence and Analytics said on Friday. "We are clearly in the midst of a demand supercycle," Lodha told PTI. The moderation is likely in the long steel segment in FY'25 ahead of the general election. The only other instance of such a demand surge in the last two decades was between 2006 to 2008, he said. Lodha said the infrastructure sector, a key driver of the steel demand, is expected to maintain its momentum fuelled by ongoing government projects. The infrastructure segment has been driving a lot of momentum in the steel demand and is expected to continue in the coming years.

Vehicle loan AUM for NBFCs to cross Rs 8 trillion in 2024-25: CRISIL

The growth in AUMs will be driven by rising demand for commercial vehicles, cars, utility vehicles, and two-/three-wheelers

CRISIL analysis: Moderation in input prices to ease pressure on margins

Apart from creating a presence in generics, larger players are also developing specialty products, biosimilars, and complex generics, which will be key medium-term growth drivers for the industry

Auto sector to take a V-turn in FY25 on election winds, new models

Luxury car segment will continue to rise its EV penetration. However, the tipping point is still a few years away. Customers require convincing on ownership benefits and hassle-free experience

Shipping companies revenue may decline by 5-7% in next fiscal: CRISIL

Domestic shipping companies are likely to see a further 5-7 per cent decline in revenue in the next financial year amid normalisation of the rates, a report said on Thursday. This follows a steep 23-25 per cent fall in their revenue in the current fiscal (2023-24) after a 35 per cent growth in the last financial year when charter rates had surged because of geopolitical conflicts (including the Russia-Ukraine war) and higher demand from China post-pandemic, credit rating agency CRISIL said on Thursday. While the margin profile may vary widely across players operating in different segments, CRISIL said the average operating margin may continue to moderate to 33-35 per cent in the next fiscal driven mainly by the correction in charter rates. However, it will remain higher than the pre-pandemic levels of 25-30 per cent, the rating agency forecast. This along with modest capital expenditure (capex) plans, should sustain the healthy credit risk profiles of shipping companies, CRISIL ...

CRISIL downgrades Edelweiss Financial Services' long-term rating to 'A+'

The group's overall credit profile is supported by adequate capitalization, and a diversified business profile with good market position in asset reconstruction and asset management businesses

Amendments to SEZ Act to spur commercial office space leasing: CRISIL

The recent notification of the commerce ministry to demarcate part of Special Economic Zones into non-SEZ areas will spur office space leasing in the country, according to a report prepared by research firm Crisil Ratings. India's office space leasing is expected to benefit from the recent amendments to the SEZ Act of 2005, notified by the commerce ministry on December 6, 2023, it said. As per the notification, the amendments permit the demarcation of a part of the SEZ areas into non-SEZ ones after repayment of tax benefits availed till date, the report said. Such a demarcation of non-SEZ areas is expected to create better occupancy through commercial office space leasing, resulting in higher incomes which will outweigh associated costs. Crisil said the SEZ Act was introduced to drive exports by providing tax exemptions for companies operating within such areas. After the sunset clause of the Act kicked off in April 2020, the legislation is no longer in effect but higher complianc

Travel operators FY25 revenue seen jumping 12-14% this fiscal: CRISIL

Higher airfares and volume which reached the pre-pandemic levels across segments, including long-haul travels, will help the tour and travel sector report healthy revenue growth of 12-14 per cent next fiscal on the back of a record 30 per cent growth this fiscal, says a report. The double-digit growth seen for the next fiscal comes on the heels of a record high growth in the current fiscal, wherein the sector is poised for a revenue growth of 30 per cent, which is about 18 per cent above the pre-pandemic peak, Crisil said in a report Monday. The report also expects higher revenue growth to cushion the increased outgoes by way of the revised tax rates on tax collected at source on overseas travel packages which is in an upswing as the visa-related curbs are easing. Operating margin, too, is expected to be healthy at above 6.5 per cent this fiscal and the next, despite the higher promotional spends, backed by operating leverage benefits and various cost optimisation/automation ...

Erratic rainfall, festive demand raised cost of veg thali 10% in November

The cost of a non-veg thali jumped 5% in November as compared to October: CRISIL's Roti Rice Rate index

With retail demand and investor interest up, India set to get bigger malls

High interest from investors, along with comfortable balance sheets, is expected to keep credit risk profiles of mall owners stable, says Crisil

IBC recoveries declining, resolution timelines getting prolonged: Crisil

Introduction of a focused bankruptcy law has helped improve the credit culture in India, but the last few years have seen a decline in recoveries and the resolution timelines getting prolonged, Crisil Ratings on Friday. In a note to observe the seven years of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC), the rating agency said the recovery rates have fallen to 32 per cent in September 2023, from 43 per cent in March 2019. At the same time, the average resolution time has increased from 324 days to 653 days, versus the stipulated 330 days, it said. The IBC has helped in resolving debt worth Rs 3.16 lakh crore stuck in 808 cases in the past seven years, the leading credit rating agency said. Its senior director Mohit Makhija said the IBC is "the most potent code" in India's corporate loan history, which has brought a "behavioural change" in borrowers. "The fear of losing companies has led to over Rs 9 lakh crore of filed debt being settled before the cases arrived at the IBC doorstep fo

NBFCs likely to see assets growth moderating to 16-18% in FY24: CRISIL

India's NBFC sector is expected to record a moderate growth of 16-18 per cent in the current fiscal because of relatively slower expansion on unsecured retail loans due to the recent regulatory measures issued by the RBI, CRISIL Ratings said on Wednesday. Assets Under Management (AUM) of Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) are set to log a healthy 14-17 per cent growth next fiscal on the back of continued strong credit demand across retail loan segments, it said in a release. "Growth may be moderately lower than 16-18 per cent expected in the current fiscal, as unsecured retail loans, the fastest growing segment in the NBFC AUM pie so far, are likely to see a relatively slower growth as NBFCs recalibrate their strategies due to the recent regulatory measures issued by the Reserve Bank of India," it said. Going forward, diversification in product offerings and funding profile will be key constituents of their growth strategy, it added. The rating agency further said retail credi

CRISIL upgrades outlook on Tata Power to 'positive' on profitability view

Tata Power on Wednesday said Crisil Ratings has upgraded its outlook on the company to 'positive' on expectation of an improvement in operating profitability this fiscal. The ratings agency had earlier assigned a 'stable' outlook on the company, Tata Power said in a regulatory filing. "CRISIL Ratings Limited has upgraded its outlook on the company (Tata Power) from AA/Stable Outlook to AA/Positive Outlook," it said. The revision in outlook reflects the possibility of better-than-expected business risk profile, if the improvement in operating profitability in fiscal 2024, across power generation and distribution business, sustains along with a continuing healthy financial performance with consolidated net leverage (ratio of net debt to EBIDTA) remaining within rating threshold, it said. The increase in operating profitability of Tata Power since fiscal 2023, is mainly on account of better profitability of its Mundra Ultra Mega Power Project (Mundra plant), improved efficiency in Odi

Coal plants capacity utilisation will improve to 65% this fiscal: CRISIL

Coal-based thermal power units' plant load factor (PLF) or capacity utilisation will improve to 65 per cent in the current fiscal year despite record renewable energy capacity addition, according to Crisil Ratings. "Healthy PLFs along with lower receivables and encouraging fuel supply will support the credit profiles of private coal-based generating companies (gencos)," Crisil Ratings said in a statement. The PLFs of coal-based power plants in India will improve to 65 per cent this fiscal despite record renewable energy (RE) capacity addition, it added. Over the past two fiscals, electricity demand witnessed a robust 8-9 per cent annual growth, driven by the post-pandemic economic rebound, the agency noted. During this period, 34 gigawatts (GW) of capacity has been added, with 90 per cent of it in RE, the statement said. In GW terms, this is a 9 per cent growth in power capacities, but on normative terms this was only 4-5 per cent growth as capacities operate at varying PLFs, and