Page 16 - Global Economy

US wholesale inflation rises 2.2% in Sept, fastest pace since April

US wholesale prices rose last month at the fastest pace since April, suggesting that inflationary pressures remain despite a year and a half of higher interest rates. The Labour Department reported on Wednesday that its producer price index which measures inflation before it hits consumers climbed 2.2 per cent from a year earlier. That was up from a 2 per cent uptick in August. On a month-to-month basis, producer prices rose 0.5 per cent from August to September, down from 0.7 per cent from July to August. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, so-called core inflation rose 2.7 per cent in September from a year earlier and 0.3 per cent from August. The Federal Reserve and many outside economists pay particular attention to core prices as a good signal of where inflation might be headed. Wholesale prices have been rising more slowly than consumer prices, raising hopes that inflation may continue to ease as producer costs make their way to the consumer. But Wednesday's numbers,

Indian economy needs 8% growth to topple China as global driver: Barclays

The South Asian nation should focus investment in areas like mining, utilities, transport and storage - sectors that have stronger spillover effects on the broader economy, said Barclays economist

IMF's world economy outlook worsens, Middle East war poses new uncertainty

The world economy has lost momentum from the impact of higher interest rates, the invasion of Ukraine and widening geopolitical rifts, and it now faces new uncertainty from the war between Israel and Hamas militants, International Monetary Fund warned Tuesday. The IMF said it expects global economic growth to slow to 2.9 per cent in 2024 from an expected 3 per cent this year. The forecast for next year is down a notch from the 3per cent it predicted back in July. The deceleration comes at a time when the world has yet to fully mend from a devastating but short-lived COVID-19 recession in 2020 and now could see fallout from the Middle East conflict particularly to oil prices. A series of previous shocks, including the pandemic and Russia's war in Ukraine, has slashed worldwide economic output by about USD 3.7 trillion over the past three years compared with pre-COVID trends. The global economy is limping along, not sprinting," IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said at a

Govt to scale back on investment as it curbs budget deficit: Goldman Sachs

This move will give the private sector scope to pick up the slack in the coming years

Oil prices surges more than 2% as Middle East turmoil roils markets

Brent crude was up $2.28, or 2.7%, to $86.86 a barrel by 0859 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $85.23 a barrel, up $2.44 or nearly 3%

UN FAO raises its forecast for this year's global cereal production

FAO's new Cereal Supply and Demand Brief pegs global wheat output at 785 million tonnes, coarse grain production at 1511 million tonnes

Pakistan's foreign debt ratio rises amid ongoing economic crisis: Report

The ratio of foreign debt of cash-strapped Pakistan has shot up from 36.9 per cent in FY22 to 38.3 per cent in FY23, according to a media report on Friday. The Ministry of Finance's Annual Debt Review and Public Debt Bulletin FY2023 comes amid unchecked domestic inflation as the cash-strapped Pakistan's economy has been in a free-fall mode for the last several years. Terming it as an alarming development, Geo News said, the FY2023 Bulletin shows that the total public debt peaked at Rs 62.88 trillion till the end of June 2023 against Rs 49.2 trillion, indicating that the total public debt increased by Rs 13.64 trillion during the last fiscal year 2022-23 in the tenure of Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) coalition government. After giving details of the total outstanding guarantees to public sector enterprises, those issued to the oil and gas sector and the guarantees issued against commodity operations, the report said, the ratio of domestic debt to total public debt in percentage

Emerging economies face China and rate pressures as IMF, World Bank meet

Restructuring efforts for defaulted countries could reach a breakthrough before year-end as talks continue, while the finances of nations like Pakistan and Egypt will also be under scrutiny

Global bond selloff upends markets as long term borrowing costs surge

Traders are bracing for an extended period of tight monetary policy, and demanding ever higher compensation to hold long-dated government debt

US Treasury 30-year bond yield rises 8 bps to hit highest level since 2007

Shorter-maturity Treasury yields had previously reached the highest levels since at least 2007, and extended their climb Tuesday

Inflation woes nix chances of India yield curve steepening: Traders

The government bond yield curve has remained flat for the past few weeks, with the four- and five-year yields at around 7.25% and the 10-year benchmark bond yield at 7.23%

Here's why a US recession may still be on the cards for its economy

A summer in which inflation trended lower, jobs remained plentiful and consumers kept spending has bolstered confidence that the world's biggest economy will avoid recession

US manufacturing sector eyes recovery, construction spending solid

Among the 11 industries reporting contraction were computer and electronic products, machinery as well as electrical equipment, appliances and components

US govt shutdown would be negative for credit rating, says Moody's

U.S. government services would be disrupted and hundreds of thousands of federal workers furloughed without pay if Congress fails to provide funding for the fiscal year starting Oct. 1

Inflation drops sharply in Europe, but higher crude oil prices loom

Inflation that has been plaguing Europeans declined sharply in September, strengthening hopes that consumers will eventually get relief from costlier groceries, vacations and haircuts and that the European Central Bank won't have to further restrict the economy by raising interest rates from already-record highs. The annual rate was 4.3% this month, a drop from 5.2% in August. But recently higher oil prices are casting a shadow over prospects for beating inflation back down to the central bank's target of 2%. Core inflation, which excludes volatile fuel and food prices, fell more than analysts expected to 4.5% from 5.3%, according to data released Friday by the European Union's statistics agency, Eurostat. The ECB closely watches this figure to assess how inflation is coming down. The fall in core inflation reinforces our view that the ECB has finished raising interest rates, said Jack Allen-Reynolds, deputy chief eurozone economist at Capital Economics. He predicted that the ...

Tight supply, inflation concerns keep crude oil investors on fence

By 1111 GMT, Brent crude futures were down 37 cents to $96.18 a barrel after rising to their highest level since last November earlier in the session. The November contract expires on Friday

ECB looks to leverage AI to better understand inflation after big misses

Joining the masses of firms already using AI, the ECB is now exploring ways to process and analyse millions of data points, including public price data, corporate statistics

JP Morgan Chief Dimon warns 7% US Fed rate still possible: Report

"We urge our clients to be prepared for that kind of stress," the JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO said in an interview with the Times of India, saying a hard landing remains a risk for the US economy

India growing amid decelerating global growth: Triveni Turbine MD

India is registering growth amid a decelerating global economy, and the country is on the cusp of achieving a "psychologically important" USD 5 trillion mark, industrialist Nikhil Sawhney said on Tuesday. The government has set an ambitious target to make India a USD 5 trillion economy in the coming years. Addressing business leaders here at a session of All India Management Association (AIMA), Triveni Turbine's Vice Chairman and Managing Director Sawhney said, this is India's century and the numbers point towards a great future for India. The country has over a billion consumer base and a strong workforce. India is already the fifth-largest economy in the world and it is set to become the third-largest soon. "India's GDP is nearing USD 4 trillion and it is on the cusp of achieving a psychologically important USD 5 trillion mark. India's digital economy is on the steroids and is set to grow to USD 1 trillion by 2026," he said. At a time when the global economic growth is decelerat

Fed funds futures trade for December rate hike sees record volume

The fed funds futures market allows traders to place wagers on the precise timing of US central bank policy actions, and they did so to an eye-popping degree after this week's meeting