Tarun Sawhney, MD & vice-chairman of Triveni Engineering, a leading sugar producer with growing emphasis on biofuels, tells S Dinakar sugar prices will be stable and on a slightly upward trajectory
Sugar mills have already exported nearly 10 million tonnes so far -- an all-time high -- in the current marketing year. The industry has been demanding that the export cap should be enhanced.
The threat to India's rice production comes at a time when countries are grappling with soaring food costs and rampant inflation
The Centre is likely to allow an additional 1.2 million tonnes (MT) of sugar exports in the current season ending September 2022, according to government sources
Sugar production in the current year now estimated at more than 36 MT, against expectation of 35 MT
ISMA estimates that the diversion of cane juice and B-molasses to ethanol shall cut sugar production by about 4.5 mt during the next marketing year.
Any additional exports this year may pressure global prices.
Rallying energy markets, tight sugar availability, COVID lockdowns in China and logistical issues from the fallout of Russia's military invasion of Ukraine have led to uptick in spot sugar prices.
Last month, the world's biggest producer of the sweetener gave its mills until July 5 to export the sugar, but some mills missed doing so because of heavy rains
Additional shipments from India, the world's biggest exporter of sugar after Brazil, could weigh on raw sugar futures, which are trading near their lowest in four months.
It has capped current season's sugar exports 10 mn tonnes, wants ample local supplies.
Actual agriculture exports in FY22 were $47.41 billion, up almost 19% over FY21. This was among the highest ever agriculture exports in value terms by India
Urge timely decision on the matter as global prices are firm , and they can sign future contracts at good prices
Cites production increase to 36 million tonnes from 35 million tonnes last season
The government has capped sugar exports at 100 lakh tonnes for the 2021-22 marketing year (October-September) with effect from June 1
Sugar exports from India, the world's largest producer of the sweetener, touched a record 8.6 million tonne till May of the ongoing 2021-22 year, said the latest data by industry body ISMA.
Production of the sweetener is expected to be higher than earlier estimates
India has exported around 8.5 million tonnes of sugar since the current season began on Oct 1, with exporters likely to contract another 1.5 million tonnes for overseas sales in the next five months
Analysts believe that the government's curb on 10 metric ton sugar exports would not cause a major impact as their expectation was lower than the limit for this year.
While strong lobbying to reverse curbs is expected, share prices are seen hitting new 52-week lows before the new season rolls in