Why Japan has lifted WWII-era arms curbs to allow lethal arms exports

Japan has lifted decades-old curbs on lethal arms exports, signalling a major shift from its post-war pacifist stance as Tokyo seeks a bigger role in global defence supply chains

The scars of the Second World War had long shaped Japan’s pacifist defence posture. But changes in the global security environment have pushed Tokyo to rethink that approach, leading to a landmark decision to lift restrictions on exporting lethal weapons.

 

On Tuesday, Japan dismantled its decades-old curbs on arms exports. This allows Tokyo the overseas sale of lethal military equipment, including missiles, fighter jets and warships, replacing its earlier limits that largely confined exports to non-lethal categories such as rescue, transport and surveillance.

 

“No single country can now protect its own peace and security alone, and partner countries that support each other in terms of defence equipment are necessary,” Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said in a post on X.

 

 

The decision, approved by the government’s National Security Council (NSC), opens the door for Japan to enter the global arms market.

 

What exactly has changed in Japan’s arms export framework?

 

The latest policy revision fundamentally changes both the scope and the mechanism of Japan’s arms exports.

 

Earlier, exports were restricted to five non-lethal categories, but the new framework permits the sale of full-fledged weapons systems such as missiles and fighter aircraft, according to Reuters.

 

Data source: Japan’s MOFA; Credit: Akshita Singh

 

A report in The Japan Times said approvals will now be handled by the National Security Council, streamlining decision-making at the executive level. Parliamentary oversight remains, but only after approvals are granted, rather than as a precondition.

 

Despite the relaxation, Japan has retained strict safeguards. These include end-use verification and restrictions on exports to countries actively engaged in conflict, in line with guidelines outlined by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA).

 

Why is Japan lifting curbs on lethal arms exports now?

 

The decision reflects a convergence of geopolitical, economic and strategic pressures.

 

Japan’s policy rethink comes amid rising concerns over China’s expanding military footprint in the Indo-Pacific. Tokyo sees a need to strengthen deterrence and deepen security partnerships in response to Beijing’s regional posture, reported Reuters.

 

While countries like the Philippines have welcomed the move, China has expressed concern.

 

“China is deeply concerned about this,” foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said, adding that Beijing would remain “highly vigilant” against what it described as potential militarisation.

 

Relations between the two countries have remained strained, particularly over Taiwan, which Japan has increasingly linked to its own security.

 

The US has long dominated global arms supply chains. It accounted for 95 per cent of Japan’s defence imports and a significant share of purchases by key allies between 2021 and 2025, according to a Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) report.

 

However, evolving US foreign policy positions have raised questions about long-term security guarantees. Analysts cited by Reuters said such uncertainty has prompted allies, including Japan, to diversify their defence strategies and take on a more proactive role.

 

Ongoing conflicts, including the war in Ukraine and tensions in West Asia, have strained Western defence production capacity. This has created an opening for new suppliers, with Japan positioning itself to fill part of the gap.

 

Japan’s defence sector has long operated under structural constraints, with decades of export restrictions limiting scale, competitiveness and global reach.

 

Data shows that arms exports remained negligible for much of the post-war period, standing at about $21 million in 2024, with a long-term average of roughly $48 million since 1960, according to SIPRI estimates. Even at their peak, exports were a fraction of global levels.

 

In contrast, Japan has increasingly relied on imports to meet its defence needs. Arms imports surged by around 155 per cent in the 2019–2023 period compared to the previous five years, making the country one of the world’s largest importers of military equipment. Between 2018 and 2023 alone, Japan purchased an estimated $30 billion worth of defence systems from the United States.

 

This imbalance has resulted in a persistent defence trade gap, with imports far outpacing exports.

Data compiled and visualised by Akshita Singh with the help of genspark.ai

Against this backdrop, policymakers see arms exports as a way to strengthen the industrial base, achieve economies of scale and reduce production costs. Expanding overseas sales is also expected to support major domestic manufacturers such as Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, while aligning Japan more closely with global defence supply chains.

 

How is Japan’s defence industry responding?

 

Japan’s defence industry has begun adjusting to the policy shift, with companies preparing to scale up operations and tap overseas markets.

 

Air defence systems maker Toshiba told Reuters it plans to hire around 500 people over the next three years and is building new testing and manufacturing facilities. It has also created a dedicated unit to handle defence exports.

 

“Reputational risk is not what it used to be,” said Kenji Kobayashi, vice-president in Toshiba’s defence division.

 

At the same time, some firms remain cautious, particularly those with significant consumer-facing businesses.

 

Toyota Customising & Development said it could not accommodate requests for military vehicles based on its business policy, while others indicated they would carefully assess opportunities.

 

Mitsubishi Electric is already hiring for overseas sales roles linked to fighter aircraft and other military exports. The company expects its defence-related sales to triple to 600 billion yen by 2031.

 

Demand for finished systems is expected to be strongest in Asia, while Europe, Australia and the United States may serve as markets for components and joint development.

 

What Japan’s entry means for global defence dynamics

 

Japan’s entry into the global arms market could reshape defence dynamics, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region.

 

By emerging as a supplier of advanced military equipment, Japan could offer partner nations an alternative to traditional exporters such as the United States and European countries. This could diversify supply chains and deepen security ties across Southeast Asia and beyond.

 

According to SIPRI, Japan’s arms industry is already comparable in scale to countries such as South Korea, Germany and Israel, though it remains significantly smaller than that of the US.

 

“Japan has been kind of in the timeout box because of World War Two,” said Andrew Koch, founder of Nexus Pacific, as quoted by Reuters. “But it was inevitably going to move closer to the centre of global politics,” he added.

 

For now, as global security challenges intensify, Tokyo’s shift suggests it is no longer content to remain on the sidelines of the international arms market.