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Statsguru: Rupee strengthens, exports under pressure

Calls for RBI to step in to ensure a more competitive exchange rate are gaining traction

Ishan Bakshi  |  New Delhi 

Rupee strengthens, exports under pressure
Rupee has strengthened considerably against dollar, touching 63.6 on August 8

With the strengthening of the over the past year, calls for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to step in to ensure a more regime are increasingly gaining traction. 

As Chart 1 shows, from 66.2/$ at the beginning of the previous financial year, the fell to 68.8 in November, after the demonetisation.
 

Since then, it has strengthened considerably, touching 63.6 on August 8, 2017. On the RBI’s real effective (REER) too, the is overvalued, as shown in Chart 2.
 

While many have questioned the way this index has been constructed and it also does not account for productivity differentials between countries, the does show that the has been consistently overvalued since the previous year. Compare this with the performance of other currencies. Over the same period, India’s export competitors, such as and Bangladesh, have seen their currency fall by 2.7 and 3.1 per cent, respectively, as shown in Chart 3. Only the and the have appreciated. 

 

 
The expansion in since August last year appears to have moderated, as Chart 4 shows.
 
In Q1FY18, of major labour-intensive sectors such as leather products, gems, and jewellery contracted, as shown in Chart 5.
 
On the other hand, while imports growth appears to be stronger, it has dipped recently (Chart 6). 
 
A report by the HSBC Global Research suggests domestic bottlenecks alone account for 50 per cent of the growth slowdown in of goods and services, followed by world growth at 33 per cent. Exchange rates account for only 17 per cent of the slowdown (Chart 7). But compared to the other factors, gains from a more are easily secured and accrue in the near-term.

Statsguru: Rupee strengthens, exports under pressure

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