India 2010

From the unique vantage of having completed a half decade, and the next five years before us, Business Standard gets into forecasting mode

Will Ratan Tata's Rs 1 lakh car have rolled out by 2010?

BS Motoring: Yes, it will already be two years into production, and an improved V2 version will be launched in 2010! In two years, all the major defects would have been ironed out by Tata. But it will still have competition from the ridiculously priced Maruti 800.

BS Corporate Bureau: We know orders for critical parts have been placed and the engine is in its final avatar. Some even believe that a diesel engine is under consideration. But the big question in everyone's mind is whether the car will be priced at Rs 1 lakh. Challenges include the homologation issue on the safety of this car, requiring a speed limiting technology to make sure the car does not disintegrate at high speeds!

Ravi Kant, executive director, Tata Motors: "No comment."

Will Mahindra & Mahindra become the world's largest tractor company?

Anand Mahindra, vice chairman and MD, M&M: "In one word: 'absolutely'. Mahindra has been the market leader in India for over 20 years, and India is the world's largest tractor market, so it follows logically that we should aspire to be the largest player in the world. We will achieve this through a combination of organic and inorganic growth."

Anjanikumar Choudhari, president (farm equipment sector) and member of the management board, M&M: "A definite yes, if one were to go by Anand Mahindra's vision... While the first million tractors from M&M took around 40 years to sell, the next million, we anticipate, will take around five years only."

Team BS: Anand Mahindra is bang on target for jumping from the fourth position to the top of the global list within five years. It is slated to double its capacity to 1,40,000 units a year.

How many aircraft with Indian carriers will be flying the skies by 2010?

Team BS: From the 175 currently, the number of aircraft will go up to around 500, and will be concentrated chiefly among five airlines.

Capt Gopinath, MD, Air Deccan (current fleet size 20): "We will possess a fleet of 100 aircraft by December 2010, and 115 aircraft by 2012 (contracts for which have already been signed). We will take Air Deccan global as and when the opportunity arises. We do have plans for Air Deccan to venture into other countries in the next few years in India's immediate neighbourhood. In the next 4-5 years, we will not only be the largest Indian airline carrier in India in terms of fleet size but also in terms of passenger volumes."

Vijay Mallaya, chairman, Kingfisher Airlines (current fleet size 9 aircraft): "By 2010, Kingfisher Airlines will have raised its fleet size to 60 aircraft and we will be India's largest/biggest private domestic carrier." (Team BS: Er, maybe that's provided Kingfisher ends up buying out Sahara.)

Siddhanta Sharma, CEO, SpiceJet (current fleet size 5 aircraft): "By 2010, SpiceJet will have 50 aircraft."

Where will Sania Mirza be by 2010?

Vijay Amritraj: "Either she will be ranked among the top 10 players in the world, or she will be in Bollywood!"

Laloo Prasad Yadav... who?

Sharad Yadav: "Nobody is finished forever in politics. Laloo Yadav was punished for doing everything except his duty in the past 15 years. He is just not meant for development. His party was no party, it was just an individual. He has to think why he lost. If he makes amends, as I said, nobody is every finished in politics. But, will he?

What will the blogosphere be like?

Amit Varma, India Uncut (http://indiauncut.blogspot. com): "Any developments in blogging hinge on Internet penetration, and this will have improved vastly in five years' time. With software development we will also see an increasing number of vernacular blogs. In my opinion India's most influential blogs in 2010 will be the non-English ones. "Advertising on blogs will be widespread, but it will have to be transparent "" otherwise the blog won't maintain its credibility. The blogosphere operates on a self-regulatory basis; a blog won't be taken seriously if it is simply a public relations tool."

Santosh Desai, president, McCann Erickson: "Blogs would become more mainstream and influential. Commercialisation would take blogs to another level." Anonymous techie: "They will not take off in a major way."

Will Indian Idol Abhijeet Sawant still be around?

Music director Anu Malik: "There's fierce competition building up every year and I think Abhijeet (if he fails to make the right moves) will find it tough to sustain himself."

Komal Nahata, editor, Box Office: "Sawant's 15 minutes of fame are over. Many more idols will be around by 2010."

Will reality TV remain strong in 2010?

Gajendra Singh, producer, Zee Television: "Reality TV will remain the flavour in 2010, but the unnecessary hype surrounding the contestants will die down. Hopefully, channels will concentrate on the content and quality of singing."

Which actor will rule Bollywood?

Subhash Ghai, film director: "From the current lot, Shreyas Talpade has an edge over others because of his theatre background. He should do well by 2010."

Mallika Sherawat "" sex or ex kitten?

Santosh Desai, president, McCann Erickson: "She would be remembered but will not be around. She has had her share of publicity and The Myth will be shattered!"

Would we have won an Oscar by then?

Komal Nahata, editor, Box Office: "I hope so, but I don't think so. It took us 50 years and a Lagaan to reach even that far." Will the K soap operas be around?

Smriti Irani, television actor: "It's been six years of existence for the Saas-Bahu serials. Looking at the way things are, maybe they would be around in 2010 also."

Will Indian film stars hit the big time in mainstream Hollywood?

Rahul Bose, actor: "As soon as Americans accept the fact that Indians are a major part of their society, they will start casting Indian actors (stars) in their films. The same way as they started casting Afro-Americans in their movies once they accepted them as a part of their society, as their absence of roles in movies was questioned or their inclusion was felt.

"I feel that Indian actors/stars making it big in Hollywood is not that big. They don't necessarily need to be there or be accepted by Hollywood. But by 2010, definitely, some Indian actors/stars will make it big in Hollywood."

Komal Nahata, film analyst: "We are under a serious misconception that Bollywood stars are hot and happening globally. For Indian stars to make an entry into Bollywood, it would need Hollywood to sit up and take note of Bollywood."

er, How many fashion weeks will India have?

Rohit Bal, designer: "By 2010, I think there will be only one official fashion week, ie the India Fashion Week organised by FDCI (Fashion Design Council of India). The rest of the fashion weeks can be organised by private players.

James Ferreira, designer: "Delhi and Mumbai should have their own specific fashion weeks. Each city has its own style "" maybe Mumbai should focus more on couture. Bangalore, Kolkata and Chennai also have their style statements; they should also have their own fashion weeks. India is a large market; we can afford to have four or five fashion weeks.

Will N R Narayana Murthy become President of India?

Techie hotshot (preferring anonymity): "Certainly. He is the right candidate. He will not be a rubber stamp kind of person."

Will the BJP come back to power?

Balraj Madhok: "As things are, I don't think the BJP can ever come back to power. It has lost its identity and credibility among the masses because of the Congressisation of the BJP. It's not a party of ideology any more. I am happy that the party is getting rid of Atal Behari Vajpayee and Lal Krishna Advani as also their charitra and chintan (character and thinking). But I don't see any prospects for the BJP now. It will have to do a lot of explaining to people. The RSS was supposed to unite the Hindus but any party that the RSS backs now gets divided. The country needs a nationalist party. But the BJP has to return to Jan Sangh. There was no reason for leaving Jan Sangh to form a new party."

What's the future of multiplexes?

Sourav Verma, head (marketing), PVR: "Multiplexes will spring up in smaller cities like Meerut and Moradabad. 2010 will be a time for the multiplexes to go to the grassroot levels, and tickets would be priced economically. Digital cinemas would be common and every mall will need a multiplex to spruce footfalls."

What will be the size of employment in BPOs?

Ranjit Narasimhan, HCL Technologies: "The size of employment in BPO in India is expected to be around 1.2 million by 2010." Can Maruti become the world's largest small car company by 2010?

BS Corporate Bureau: It's a long shot, though arithmetically possible. Suzuki today sells 6.7 lakh cars in Japan and is one of the world's largest small car companies. Maruti makes close to 5 lakh and has about half of India's car market. If India indeed produces 2 million cars by 2010, as predicted by almost every research firm, and if Maruti continues to have a 50 per cent market share in 2010, its total production will be 1 million cars. Suzuki in Japan growing to 1 million units by 2010 is not as feasible as its child in India doing it.

Will Abhishek Bachchan be the next Big B?

Komal Nahata, editor, Box Office: "If he becomes the Small B, that will be good enough. I don't think there will another Amitabh Bachchan ever."

Will India become the world's auto-components hub?

BS Corporate Bureau: Definitely not by 2010. Leave alone developed markets like US, Japan and Europe, today China's car market is 2.5 times the size of India. So by sheer domestic market consumption of auto parts alone, China is already bigger than what India aspires to be by 2010, when we expect our passenger vehicle market to hit the 2 million mark. Any prediction beyond 2010 will be pure speculation, since the dynamics of this business are fast changing due to the free trade agreements India is signing with many ASEAN countries.

BS Motoring: India's auto components business would be much, much bigger. In fact, in 2010, we can source one component from each component manufacturer and put all that into making a project car!

Will Bajaj Auto overtake Hero Honda in motorcycles and become the country's No. 1?

Rahul Bajaj (speaking to BS Delhi): "It's a wrong question to ask. We may, by 2010 or even earlier, or we may not. If you ask me if we want to be the largest in the country, yes we want to. But I don't know what Hero Honda will be doing." And speaking to BS Mumbai: " I don't know who will overtake whom and when. We were No. 1 for 38 years till Hero Honda, which is a very good company, overtook us two years ago. When we overtake them and become No. 1 depends not only on us but also on them. I don't like to comment on these things."

Will trucks be able to guarantee a 24-hour delivery service between Delhi and Mumbai?

Vineet Agarwal, executive director, Transport Corporation of India: "We are hopeful of reducing the transit time of delivering goods from Delhi to Mumbai to less than 24 hours. However, bottlenecks need to be taken care of."

O P Harshwal, CEO, Patel Roadways: "No way. Given the sheer physical distance, 24 hours will not be possible. Maybe we can aim for 24-hour delivery on the Mumbai- Bangalore route which is only 900 km compared to the 1,500 km distance on the Delhi-Mumbai route."

Will Wal-Mart's entry wipe out domestic players and Mom 'n' Pop stores?

Arvind Singhal, chairman, KSA Technopak: "In 2010, Wal-Mart will be one of the several contenders (Indian and international) for a share of the Indian retail market.

"Mom 'n' Pop stores will not only continue to exist but will thrive since they offer the unique advantage of 'convenience' to consumers."

What about alternative fuels?

R K Pachauri, director general, TERI: "In some parts of the world alternative sources of energy will take a quantum jump by 2010, but the progress in India is far below the economic or technological potential available. In India, unfortunately, renewable energy policy is still ad-hoc and not driven by long-term strategic compulsions. Nor is there an effort across the board in different sectors of the economy that would really result in a quantum jump for alternative sources of energy in the next five years."

Dr Wilfried G Aulbur, CEO & MD, DaimlerChrysler India: "The success of jatropha biodiesel and its situation by 2010 will depend to a large extent on the timely steps by government, public-private sector and associated stakeholders. Quality standards adopted will also be a key parameter to determine the long-term success of jatropha biodiesel in India. The government may also like to draw up adequate taxation policy with biofuels to further add to its viability. The overall outlook is certainly very optimistic."

Will Apollo become India's largest tyre company?

Onkar S Kanwar, CMD, Apollo Tyres: "We will definitely become India's largest and finest tyre company in the next year or so. But that is just the short term. In the next five years, I see Apollo becoming a truly global player with the best in class quality and cutting edge technology."

Will Tanya Godrej take over from Adi Godrej?

Anil Sachdev, CEO, Grow Talent Company: "I have no doubt that Adi and the leadership team in Godrej will do a great job of succession planning as it is a company in which family members and professionals work in ways that are well defined and clear and the talent management process is robust."

Team BS: Tanya Godrej is being groomed for the top job at Godrej. But she has to wait a while as her father is still agile and deeply involved in guiding the company. Adi Godrej says what matters is competence and not the surname. While family members will not automatically rise up the hierarchy, that does not mean a Godrej surname is a disqualification for the job. "It's too early to say who will take over from whom," he says.

Will obesity be a major problem by 2010?

Dr Anjali Mukherjee, nutritionist, founder Health Total clinics: "By 2010, we will see a jump in the number of obese children and adolescents, because today consumption of junk food makes up as much as 35 per cent of an average urban teenager's diet. The real cause for concern is that obesity precipitates heart disease, type II diabetes and cancer "" the three biggest causes of death. By 2010, India will have the largest population of diabetics in the world."

Who will be cricket captain?

Team BS: Kolkata would want to see Ganguly even 50 years later, but that's not to be. Even Rahul Dravid won't be around then. The captaincy will go to Virender Sehwag (BS Delhi) or Irfan Pathan (BS Mumbai).

Navjot Singh Sidhu: "Why do you want to wake the sleeping dog?" Will Naval Tata be the chosen one, finally?

Team BS: There is no doubt on this, it's Naval Tata all the way. What a Gandhi is to the Congress, a Tata is to the Tata Group. You would have media speculation over Dadi Seth et al, but there's no stopping Naval. He has also helped his cause by doing a fantastic job at Trent.

What is the likelihood of peace with Pakistan?

Gaurav Dalmia, Director, First Capital: "The people of India and Pakistan are at peace with one another. Proof of this is New York city where Indian and Pakistani cab drivers live and work together as one community. It is another matter that our governments are hostile to each other. Often, leaders tend to follow their electorate "" and that verdict is clear."

How many TV channels will India have by 2010?

Peter mukherjea, CEO, STAR India: "A total of 1,000 channels catering to Indians in and outside India is a possibility."

Will DVDs still be around?

Captain Raghu Raman, CEO, Mahindra Special Services Group: "No. All storage will be chip memory based. Capacities will increase, compression algorithms will improve. Costs per GB will plummet. A singular device will be the player. This device will be capable of projection or on-screen display and connectivity capable of delivering live content "" real time."

Will online shopping become the flavour for housewives?

Preeti Desai, president, Internet and Mobile Association of India: "By 2010, multi-tasking housewives will be searching, sharing, communicating, shopping, learning and earning online." Sushil Dungarwal, retailer: "Five years from now is still too early to talk about online shopping taking off India. One critical issue is the penetration of PCs, which is way too low, and the other is the touch-feel that all Indians prefer to enjoy when they go shopping."

K Vaitheeswaran, CEO, Fabmall .com: "For certain product categories like books, groceries, CDs/VCDs/ DVDs that do not need housewives to touch and feel the products. In fact, women "" both working and home-makers "" now form almost 45 per cent of the online shopping population in the US. Another key factor is window shopping. Women shoppers prefer spending a lot more time browsing for products before making their selection and online shopping allows the best browsing experience "" customers can browse as long as they wish, in complete privacy and without any pesky salespeople."

Will KPOs be the next BPOs?

Pramod Bhasin, CEO, Genpact: "The higher end skill levels is where India's true differentiation will show as we leverage our intellectual capabilities. But this will remain limited in size and scale."

Sameer Walia, co-founder, Smart Cube: "KPOs can never overshadow the BPOs. They were and will always be the lower cousins of BPOs because the growth and revenues are much bigger in a BPO than a KPO. As I see, by 2010 KPOs might not even be 60 per cent of the BPOs."

Ranjit Narasimhan, HCL Technologies: "With time the industry matures and the composition of the industry moves in favour of the higher value services. Accordingly, in due course, more and more jobs in BPO will come from KPO. KPO is actually a subset of BPO."

Numbers

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FMCG market size
The measure of a market is often its FMCG component. What is it worth now? What will it be in 2010? Here's what two studies suggest:

As on December 15, 2005: Rs 55,000 crore
In 2010: Rs 85,000 crore, of which Rs 35,000 crore will form the urban market and Rs 50,000 crore the semi-urban and rural market. Source: Assocham

Current value: Rs 93,000 crore
2010 value: Rs 1,43,000 crore (based on an estimated growth rate of 9 per cent per annum CAGR; even if the sector doesn't do too well, and grows at 4 per cent CAGR, it will reach Rs 1,14,000 crore in 2010). Source: CII-AT Kearney FMCG Survey 2005

India - Pakistan Bilateral Trade
From $345 million (2003-04) to $10 billion in 2010, provided the South Asian Free Trade Agreement is not thwarted by the two countries. Assocham

Commodity Futures Market
From Rs 3.4 lakh crore currently to Rs 12 lakh crore by 2010, a growth of over 252 per cent, generating employment opportunities for 1 lakh people. Assocham

India's Global Textile Exports
Currently, textile exports generate $14 billion in foreign exchange. Projected at $50 billion by 2010, estimates suggest it's likely to fall to $35 billion if crude oil prices continue to rise, adding to input costs, making India's global export trade of textiles not competitive.

Size of retail market
Organised retailing is projected to reach over Rs 1,00,000 crore by 2010. Investments into the sector are estimated at over Rs 20,000 crore by the end of 2010. - KSA Technopak India Retail Report-2005

India will have 220 malls in 2006 and over 600 malls by 2010. Source: Edelweiss Securities

Retail space (10 million sq ft in 2002) is to grow to 80 million sq ft in 2010: Source Edelweiss Securities

Internet connectivity
Wireless consumers by 2010 should be approximately 200 million. - Preeti Desai, president, Internet and Mobile Association of India

Cars
Will double to 2 million cars from the current 1 million now.

Music
From Rs 1,150 crore currently, the music industry will grow to Rs 1,500 crore by 2010. Simultaneously, the scope of music piracy will grow from Rs 450 crore now to Rs 600-700 crore by 2010. Mobile phone music (ringtones download) will grow to a whopping 23 per cent from the current 5 per cent and be a source of major revenue. Source: Savio D'Souza, secretary general, Indian Music Association

Entertainment
The Indian entertainment industry will grow at a rate of 18 per cent over the next five years. The size of the entertainment industry (including TV, film, music and radio) is Rs 22,200 crore, and will touch Rs 58,800 by 2010, with television contributing nearly 60 per cent to the growth. Television will grow at the fastest pace and touch over Rs 33,000 crore by 2010. Entertainment distribution with new distribution channels, such as broadband, Internet access and wireless communications have contributed significantly to the growth in the industry. Source: KPMG-CII report, Indian entertainment industry: Focus 2010: Dreams to reality

Infrastructure

Annual plan allotment of $900 million for roads. $1.5 billion to be invested on the Mumbai-Delhi high-speed freight corridor. Under the National Highways Development Project (NHDP), the largest highway project ever undertaken by the country, and with the shortest timespan for completion (14,279 km of national highways are to be converted to 4/6-lanes at a total estimated cost of Rs. 65,000 crore at 2004 prices), it consists of the following components: The Golden Quadrilateral (5,846 km) connecting Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkata, to be completed by mid 2006; the North-South and East-West Corridors (7,300 km) connecting Srinagar in the north to Kanyakumari in the south, and Silchar in the east to Porbandar in the west, to be completed by mid-2008.

In the power sector, $75 billion would have been spent by then.

Infrastructure

Port connectivity and other projects "" 1,133 km.

Delhi and Mumbai should see two new international airports

Rs 61,000-crore National Maritime Development Programme (NMDP) to boost infrastructure at major ports in the next 10 years. Under the programme, 228 projects have been identified for implementation in two phases through public-private partnership. This means additional capacities of 528.09 million tonnes would have to be created; the current port capacity is 389.5 million tonnes.

Knowledge power
Indian software exports: $35 billion
Indian BPO exports: $25 billion Total Indian software and BPO exports: $ 60 billion Source: Nasscom-McKinsey projections for IT/BPO

Gold
India's gold consumption in 2005 is likely to be about 820 tonnes compared with 2004's 740 tonnes.

"By 2010, our gold reserves will be 15,000 tonnes, and consumption will be 2,000 tonnes (1,500 imports and 500 domestic production inclusive of the recycled," Jignesh Shah, Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd

Miscellaneous

"The GDP growth should reach a double digit figure before 2010 and should continue to rise in double digit if we have to achieve our targets for 2020" - APJ Abdul Kalam

65 per cent of population will be in working age (15-60 years).

Medical tourism will earn an annual revenue of $2 billion by 2010.

Miscellaneous

Speciality chemicals will be a $14 billion industry by 2010.

According to a McKinsey report, India can capture more than 50 per cent of $110 billion worth of global offshoring market in 2010. And generate export revenues of approximately $60 billion by growing at 25 per cent year-on-year till 2010. This could contribute 1 per cent per year to GDP growth. It can directly employ 2.3 million people.

The government has fixed an export target of $150 billion by 2008-09 to double the country's share in world exports from 0.8 per cent to 1.5 per cent.

The top five players will contribute upto 1,000 multiplex screens.

By 2010, it is estimated that there will be more than 94 million cable and satellite households.

By 2010, the demand for animation and 3D technologies would double from today's $1.5 bn. Source: Raman Madan, M&E

Size of Indian advertising industry will be about Rs 40,000 crore. Source: Santosh Desai, president, McCann Erickson.

Teledensity will cover 50 per cent of the population by 2010.

20 million people will use broadband by 2010.

The food-processing market in India is expected to attract investment of over $32.1 million by 2010.