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When a month was left for 2014-15 to end, the Centre's fiscal deficit crossed the Budget's revised estimate (RE) by 17.5 per cent, during the April 2014-February 2015 period.
At this point, the deficit had surpassed the RE by 14.3 per cent in the previous year. March usually improves things, as there's a slashing in spending and a surge in revenue collected.
The fiscal deficit stood at Rs 6.02 lakh crore in the first 11 months against the RE of Rs 5.13 lakh crore. This means the government would have had to ensure a fiscal surplus of around Rs 89,000 crore in March. It remains to be seen if this did happen. The deficit would slightly fall here and there as a percentage of gross domestic product once the new figures become available by end-May.
Even so, last year, the Centre not only met but bettered the fiscal deficit target of 4.6 per cent of GDP. This time as well, finance ministry officials are confident the target of 4.1 per cent of GDP would be met, bolstered by telecom spectrum auction money.
However, the government resorted to huge cuts in expenditure to meet its target in 2013-14. This is also likely to have happened for 2014-15. More so as Press Trust of India had a revenue department official saying direct tax collections would be short of the RE in 2014-15.
The Centre's total tax revenue was Rs 6.5 lakh crore during April 2014-February 2015, about 71.7 per cent of the RE at Rs 9.1 lakh crore. These revenues had stood at 75 per cent in the corresponding period of 2013-14.
This is despite the fact that the government will get additional revenue of around Rs 20,000 crore from excise duty rises on petrol and diesel in four phases since November (till March).
Non-tax revenues, including from telecom spectrum, were Rs 1.6 lakh crore in the first 11 months, accounting for 75.7 per cent of the Rs 2.2 lakh crore in RE. It was a little less than 81 per cent at this point of time in 2013-14. However, spectrum auction will give some additional money to the government in March.
Non-debt capital receipts, including disinvestment, were Rs 4.08 lakh crore in April-February, 96.5 per cent of the RE at Rs 4.2 lakh crore. At this point, non-debt capital receipts accounted for 46 per cent of the RE in 2013-14.
TOUGH ROAD AHEAD
AVHIEVEMENT VS TARGET
BREAK-UP FOR RECEIPTS
BREAK-UP FOR EXPENDITURE
