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Global financial crisis: Lehman's third act won't play in emerging markets

The global meltdown didn't happen. Demographics mean it's unwise to bet on one now

Lehman Brothers
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Lehman Brothers had hoped to sell off a stake in its investment unit to raise capital and use the funds to take care of some of its toxic assets, with possible asset sales by September 10, 2008. But investors weren't convinced and the shares continue

Andy Mukherjee | Bloomberg
It was supposed to be a play in three acts. Wall Street banks and the U.S. economy took the first blow from the Lehman crisis. Next, the epicenter of trouble moved to Europe, causing a run on sovereign debt. The overhang of global borrowing was then going to culminate in a big emerging-market fiasco, caused perhaps by a disorderly unwinding of China’s post-Lehman credit bubble.

That denouement never materialized for an underappreciated reason: The forces that hastened Lehman’s demise have steadied emerging markets ever since.

A Longer View

Discussions about the origins of the pre-Lehman exuberance focus too much on