June ends with 4% surplus rain

Kharif sowing up 19%; however, significantly less than average downpour in some parts

The southwest monsoon season began on a positive note for most parts of the country, with June recording almost four per cent excess rain than the normal.

However, showers over Jharkhand, Bihar, Gangetic West Bengal, eastern Uttar Pradesh and parts of Karnataka were 20-50 per cent less than the average in the first month of the four-month season that will end in September. Which means these regions could stare at a drought-like situation unless the monsoon becomes active over there in the next few weeks.

On a cumulative basis, the southwest monsoon in June was 52 per cent more than normal over northwest India, five per cent more than normal over central India, eight per cent excess over peninsular India but 18 per cent less than normal over east and northeast India.

The rains entered the mainland on May 30 and are expected to cover the entire country in the next 45 days. The official India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that rain in July would be normal at 96 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA); in August, it would be 99 per cent of the LPA. These are the two wettest months in the season.

"As of now, the monsoon seems on track to deliver a good performance in July and August as per our prediction and so far there is no adverse movement," D S Pai, director of Long Range Forecast in IMD, told Business Standard.

Good showers so far in some parts have boosting sowing in the main kharif crops, including pulses, which had showed some slackness in the initial stages. However, a final conclusion will come only when sowing is complete in all parts.

When it rains...

• Rain was normal over 83% of the country’s landmass 
• Kharif sowing almost 19% more than the same period last year
• Cotton seems to be the biggest gainer with 142% rise in area compared to last year
• Cotton area has risen primarily at the expense of pulses and oilseeds
• Water level of 91 reservoirs was higher than June last year
• Monsoon was 52% more than normal over northwest India

It is felt that many farmers might switch from pulses to cotton and other crops, due to a sharp fall in prices of the former this year. The retail price of most pulses have dropped below the Centre-determined Minimum Support Price (MSP), following a record harvest in the 2016-17 crop year, estimated at over 22 million tonnes, a little over six mt more than the previous year.

"So far, the performance of the southwest monsoon and sowing of kharif crops has instilled hope of over three per cent farm growth in 2017-18, except if there is a big switch in area from pulses to cotton in the coming weeks," said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at CARE Ratings.

The area under cotton has risen 142 per cent from the same period last year. That under rice was almost the same as last year till Friday, that of coarse cereals was 7.6 per cent more amd of oilseeds was 8.65 per cent less.

In total, the total area under kharif crops as on Friday was around 19 per cent more than in the same period last year. Kharif crops were planted on 105.82 million hectares last year, of which sowing was completed in 22.23 mn ha till Friday.

The average water level in major reservoirs is a comfortable 19 per cent of full capacity, 126 per cent of last year's storage position at the same time.