Moist earth springs hope of sturdy rabi crop output

The rabi crop scene has started on a promising note this year. As sowing is on in most parts of the country after Diwali, there is adequate moisture in the soil, thanks to a delayed withdrawal of the southwest monsoon.

This year, the southwest monsoon began retreating only after September 15 — more than a fortnight later than the original forecast.

As for the sowing this time, its pace is expected to further gain pace as and when winter firmly sets in over northern India which will be the ground for the sowing of wheat — the biggest foodgrain cultivated during the season that is to end with spring-time harvest.

 

Not only was the withdrawal of monsoon delayed; the intensity of rains this time was among the heaviest in recent history. In fact, September turned out to be one of the wettest months this year.

According to the India Meteorological Department, 2011 saw a six per cent above-normal cumulative rainfall in September, which is the last month of the four-month southwest monsoon season. The late rains, along with its even distribution all through the four-month period, have left most reservoirs in the country with copious water.

According to the latest data from the Central Water Commission (CWC), water levels in the 81 major reservoirs across the country in the first week of November stood at 119.309 billion cubic centimetres.

This is 105 per cent of last year’s storage and 119 per cent of the average storage of last one decade. The central Indian states have 73 per cent of reservoirs having better-than-normal water levels this time.

On the price front, prices of pulses, edible oils and even grains have been reasonably high. This should act as an added incentive to farmers.

Further, the government’s decision to allow export of two million tonnes of wheat (after a gap of nearly three years) should instil hope among farmers. If production once again remains at a record high in 2011-12, then more grains could be allowed to be exported. This can cushion the market.

Moreover, government’s own wheat procurement is expected to rise significantly in the 2011-12 crop marketing year (set to start from April next year). This is because of its additional requirements to meet the obligations under the proposed Food Security Bill.

A big focus has to be on pulses. The production of kharif pulses is projected to drop by around 10 per cent to 6.43 million tonnes because of a slight break in southwest monsoon between end-June to mid-July. This has already pushed up retail price of pulses in some cities. Hence, the government is making all-out efforts to compensate the loss during the rabi sowing season.

As of the total 17-18 million tonnes of annual pulses production in India, more than four-fifth is grown during the rabi season.

The government plans to bring an additional one million hectares of land under rabi pulses. For this, it has already sanctioned Rs 80 crore to the main pulses-growing states.

The results are already visible. Till last week, oilseeds have been sown in 3.27 million hectares, as against 3.22 million hectares in the corresponding period last year. The area under pulses is marginally lower than last year. The sowing of wheat has yet to start.