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The recent rains in much of north and central India have come as a boon for the standing rabi crops, which, in the absence of adequate pre-winter showers and low monsoon, were threatening to be below-par in terms of production.
The rains, which started around late December 2014 in central India, have spread to the north and north-western parts of the country since January 1, 2015. The showers are due to the convergence between moisture-laden winds from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal.
The low-pressure area in west-central Bay of Bengal and the adjoining coastal areas of north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha, have been lingering on for some time, private weather forecaster Skymet said in a report.
Another weather system, an upper air cyclonic circulation, developed on the last day of 2014 over east-central and northeast Arabian Sea adjoining the south Gujarat coast, the report added. "The interaction created a convergence zone causing rains over Madhya Pradesh and other areas of North India."
From October 1 to December 31 of last year, north-east rains were 33 per cent less than normal - the worst since 2011 - which with deficient showers during the usual June-September monsoon season would have affected crops, had there not been a revival.
Such has been impact of the current showers that despite a marginal drop in acreage, officials expect wheat production in 2015 to be around 100 million tonnes (mt) compared to 96 mt in the previous year, if the weather remains favourable in the coming weeks.
"These rains have come at an appropriate time as crops were already facing some moisture stress," Indu Sharma, director of Karnal-based Directorate of Wheat Research, told Business Standard. A bumper harvest can be expected if the weather holds for the next few weeks and the rainfall intensity does not increase suddenly. "The only thing that farmers need to be vigilant about now is the stagnation of water in fields and the attack of yellow rust disease. If these two can be avoided, we should expect a bumper wheat harvest this year," said Sharma.
The rains are also beneficial for standing chana and mustard crops and could go a long way in improving their yields despite lower acreage compared to last year. "These rains are highly favourable for all rabi crops and might even encourage farmers to bring some fallow land under cultivation as it obviates the need for at least one irrigation," said Ramesh Chand, director of National Centre For Agricultural Economics and Policy Research. How these showers will have an impact on the yield of rabi crops will depend on the weather in the coming weeks. However, as of now, the rains will not only help boost yield, but might also bridge the gap in rabi sowing seen so far this year, he added.
